610
FXUS62 KMFL 260511
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MECHANISM TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SIDES AS THEY PUSH INLAND.
LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS WEAK AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW AS BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION, THUS LIMITING RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW, HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
WITH POPS AT 60-70% AND AROUND 40-50% FOR OTHER LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE COASTS BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH THE BROAD RIDGE
BUILDING AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A COUPLE DEGREES
(500MB TEMPS AROUND -7C), THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE DOWNBURSTS GIVEN
THE "INVERTED-V" MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE AROUND 1100-1300 J/KG,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IMPACTFUL
WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW
70S NEAR THE LAKE, INTERIOR, AND GULF COAST REGIONS TO THE UPPER 70S
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEAVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
BEING A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES, WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE INLAND AND INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BULK OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW SETUP. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
REGION, JUST NOT AS HIGH GIVEN THE ABILITY OF THE SEA BREEZES TO
ADVANCE INLAND. COASTAL CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN METRO
CORRIDOR FROM INLAND LOCATIONS.
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. REGIONS AS IT AMPLIFIES IN
STRENGTH. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN THAT THIS IS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PATTERN HINTS THAT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE REGIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE SCT COASTAL SHOWERS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. LIGHT
SE WINDS BECOMING 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z, WITH AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY
BREEZE EXPECTED AT APF. SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
MAINLY OVER INLAND SOUTH FL HOWEVER VCTS WAS PLACED IN AT PBI
WHERE SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO A PERSISTENT E/SE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 79 90 80 / 40 20 40 20
WEST KENDALL 92 76 92 77 / 40 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 78 92 79 / 40 20 40 20
HOMESTEAD 90 78 90 79 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 88 79 / 50 20 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 79 / 50 20 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 94 80 93 81 / 50 20 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 90 77 / 60 20 40 20
BOCA RATON 91 77 91 79 / 60 20 40 20
NAPLES 91 75 91 76 / 60 30 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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