496  
FXUS62 KMFL 261337  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
937 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 919 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
OVER THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF  
WATERS. ACARS SOUNDING DATA STILL SHOWS SOME RELATIVELY COLD AIR  
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN -7.5 TO -8.5C, HOWEVER,  
GRADUAL WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED  
TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW  
ALOFT COMBINED WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT  
THE SURFACE, THIS WILL HELP SHIFT MOST THE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE  
INTERIOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SEA  
BREEZES DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. WITH THE STEERING FLOW REMAINING  
LIGHT, SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS  
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING,  
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE BASED ON WHERE SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES SET UP. WHILE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  
LIMITED, IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING PEAK DIURNAL  
HEATING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOW DCAPE VALUES  
OF 1000-1200 J/KG. THIS KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN  
PLACE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND  
OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S  
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST  
COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY  
CONVECTIVE MECHANISM TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE AFTERNOON SEA  
BREEZES FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SIDES AS THEY PUSH INLAND.  
LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS WEAK AND THIS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH TOMORROW AS BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE  
REGION, THUS LIMITING RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO  
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  
WITH THE WEAK FLOW, HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR  
WITH POPS AT 60-70% AND AROUND 40-50% FOR OTHER LOCATIONS CLOSER TO  
THE COASTS BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH THE BROAD RIDGE  
BUILDING AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A COUPLE DEGREES  
(500MB TEMPS AROUND -7C), THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT  
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE DOWNBURSTS GIVEN  
THE "INVERTED-V" MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE AROUND 1100-1300 J/KG,  
BUT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IMPACTFUL  
WINDS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA  
TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW  
70S NEAR THE LAKE, INTERIOR, AND GULF COAST REGIONS TO THE UPPER 70S  
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
 
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEAVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY  
BEING A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES, WHICH WILL  
FAVOR THE INLAND AND INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BULK OF  
STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW SETUP. HOWEVER, THERE  
WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE  
REGION, JUST NOT AS HIGH GIVEN THE ABILITY OF THE SEA BREEZES TO  
ADVANCE INLAND. COASTAL CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN METRO  
CORRIDOR FROM INLAND LOCATIONS.  
 
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, DEEP LOW  
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. REGIONS AS IT AMPLIFIES IN  
STRENGTH. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW  
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN THAT THIS IS TOWARDS THE  
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXTENDED FORECAST  
PATTERN HINTS THAT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR  
AND LAKE REGIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE AFTER 15Z AND WILL RANGE  
BETWEEN 10 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS MAINLY DURING THE  
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF  
MVFR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THESE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS  
THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL  
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
 
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS  
AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH  
DAY.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025  
 
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY WEEK  
PERIOD ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO A PERSISTENT E/SE FLOW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MIAMI 90 79 90 80 / 40 20 40 20  
WEST KENDALL 92 76 92 77 / 40 20 40 20  
OPA-LOCKA 92 78 92 79 / 40 20 40 20  
HOMESTEAD 90 78 90 79 / 30 20 30 20  
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 88 79 / 50 20 40 20  
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 79 / 50 20 40 20  
PEMBROKE PINES 94 80 93 81 / 50 20 40 20  
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 90 77 / 60 20 40 20  
BOCA RATON 91 77 91 79 / 60 20 40 20  
NAPLES 91 75 91 76 / 60 30 50 30  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...REDMAN  
LONG TERM....REDMAN  
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC  
 
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