971
FXUS62 KMFL 261637
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1237 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WITH THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS NEARBY, A
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE. WHILE THIS WILL PUT A LIMIT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IT STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY, (DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 4000
TO 4500 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY), TO SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WELL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
-6.5 AND -7.5C ACROSS MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE,
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST DURING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE MID LEVEL STEERING
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE, SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOTION OF
SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HEADING TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEAVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
BEING A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES, WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE INLAND AND INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BULK OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW SETUP. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
REGION, JUST NOT AS HIGH GIVEN THE ABILITY OF THE SEA BREEZES TO
ADVANCE INLAND. COASTAL CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN METRO
CORRIDOR FROM INLAND LOCATIONS.
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. REGIONS AS IT AMPLIFIES IN
STRENGTH. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN THAT THIS IS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PATTERN HINTS THAT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE REGIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS,
HOWEVER, SOME MAY TRY TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT KAPF,
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THIS
COULD CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 90 80 90 / 20 40 20 40
WEST KENDALL 76 92 77 92 / 20 40 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 78 92 79 92 / 20 40 20 40
HOMESTEAD 78 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 79 88 / 20 40 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 89 79 89 / 20 40 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 81 94 / 20 40 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 77 90 / 20 40 20 50
BOCA RATON 77 91 79 91 / 20 40 20 40
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 30 50 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CWC
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