839
FXUS62 KMFL 262316
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
716 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING IN THE INTERIOR AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER RINSE
AND REPEAT DAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIALIZED BY THE SEA
BREEZES AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WITH THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS NEARBY, A
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE. WHILE THIS WILL PUT A LIMIT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IT STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY, (DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 4000
TO 4500 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY), TO SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS WELL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
-6.5 AND -7.5C ACROSS MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE,
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST DURING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE MID LEVEL STEERING
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE, SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE MOTION OF
SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HEADING TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
BEING A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES, WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE INLAND AND INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BULK
OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW SETUP. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE REGION, JUST NOT AS HIGH GIVEN THE ABILITY OF THE SEA BREEZES
TO ADVANCE INLAND. COASTAL CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN METRO CORRIDOR FROM INLAND LOCATIONS.
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. REGIONS AS IT AMPLIFIES IN
STRENGTH. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVEN THAT THIS IS TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PATTERN HINTS THAT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE REGIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AFTER 01-02Z AND THEN WINDS
INCREASE BY 14-15Z OUT OF THE SE AROUND 10 KTS. VCSH IN PLACE FOR
THE DAY AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. VCTS IS NOT ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS ANY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND REMAIN WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. AT APF, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THIS
COULD CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 91 80 90 / 20 50 20 40
WEST KENDALL 76 90 76 92 / 20 50 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 78 91 79 92 / 20 50 20 50
HOMESTEAD 78 90 79 90 / 20 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 88 / 30 50 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 89 79 89 / 30 50 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 80 90 81 94 / 30 50 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 30 50 20 50
BOCA RATON 78 91 78 91 / 30 50 20 50
NAPLES 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 40 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page