798
FXUS62 KMFL 270514
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
114 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ONGOING BROAD RIDGING OR A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, THUS
MAINTAINING AN OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT, THE SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER TODAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR COASTAL AND METRO LOCATIONS, BUT THEN THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TOWARDS INLAND AND INTERIOR AREAS. ONCE AGAIN TODAY, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY (2500-3000 J/KG IN
GENERAL) AND DCAPE OF 1200-1400 J/KG GIVEN THE "INVERTED-V"
SETUPS WHERE DEW POINT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM
THE MID- LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS SIGNALS AGAIN THAT
THERE COULD BE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND ALSO SIGNALS THAT BORDERLINE SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM STORMS. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COMMON
OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS MORE OF AN ISOLATED THREAT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SUB-SEVERE HAIL EITHER GIVEN MODESTLY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT LEADING TO SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES, BUT THE BROAD RIDGE
WILL PUT A HAMPER ON THIS AS WELL AS SOME MELTING OCCURRING WHEN
ANY HAIL FALLS TO THE SURFACE.
FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING ESSENTIALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT SCENARIO
FROM TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS
SEEING HIGHS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 70S NEAR THE LAKE, INTERIOR, AND GULF COAST REGIONS TO
THE UPPER 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. LATEST ANALYSES SHOW A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY IN
STRENGTH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE LOW REACHING
THE MID-ATLANTIC, A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA REGIONS, CREATING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AREA, ENHANCING LIFT AND
PROVIDING ENERGY FOR MORE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DEPRECIATES, POOLED MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL, WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS AND OTHER DETAILS WILL STILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, THE PATTERN IS DEFINITELY SETTING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS LONGER. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND
AND HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, FINER DETAILS WILL BE DESCRIBED AS
FORECAST CERTAINTY INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z, WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE
AT APF THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, AND THEN SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAY CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 79 90 80 / 40 20 40 20
WEST KENDALL 92 76 92 76 / 30 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 79 92 79 / 40 20 40 20
HOMESTEAD 90 79 90 79 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 79 / 40 20 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 79 89 79 / 40 20 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 94 80 94 81 / 40 20 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 20
BOCA RATON 91 78 91 78 / 40 20 50 20
NAPLES 92 76 91 76 / 40 30 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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