614
FXUS62 KMFL 271610
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1210 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
16Z MESOANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK 500MB RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -6C TO -7C
RANGE. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
EXPANSIVE WELL- ESTABLISHED SURFACE RIDGING. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING,
EVIDENT BY SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 300MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ACARS DATA FROM KFLL, KPBI, AND KMIA.
GIVEN THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW, THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
ONCE AGAIN DICTATE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. GIVEN THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES, CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY EVOLVE IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THAT PROPAGATE ALONG COLD POOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. 16Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS TO INITIATE
AND PROPAGATE ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORECAST PARAMETERS, THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH MID- LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH FORECAST DCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000-1200 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE AND SEA/GULF BREEZE, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE IN THE DAY IN
TANDEM WITH THE BEST 0-3KM CAPE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-
WIDE WITH SHARP SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE IN AND AROUND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A SIMILAR PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ALOFT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW STILL ONGOING AT THE SURFACE. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ALOFT WITH FAIRLY LACKLUSTER
FLOW, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN MESOSCALE PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE AFTERNOON WEATHER PATTERN REGIME. POP-UP SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A FOCI OF CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MEAGER
ONCE AGAIN, FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG+ WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GET MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HAZARDS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. LATEST ANALYSES SHOW A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY IN
STRENGTH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE LOW REACHING
THE MID-ATLANTIC, A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA REGIONS, CREATING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AREA, ENHANCING LIFT AND
PROVIDING ENERGY FOR MORE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DEPRECIATES, POOLED MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL, WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS AND OTHER DETAILS WILL STILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, THE PATTERN IS DEFINITELY SETTING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS LONGER. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND
AND HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, FINER DETAILS WILL BE DESCRIBED AS
FORECAST CERTAINTY INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE AFTER 15Z
AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST COAST
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAY CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAY CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 90 80 90 / 20 30 20 40
WEST KENDALL 77 92 77 92 / 20 30 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 79 92 / 20 40 20 50
HOMESTEAD 79 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 88 / 20 40 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 79 88 / 20 40 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 81 94 80 93 / 20 40 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 78 89 / 30 40 20 60
BOCA RATON 78 92 78 90 / 30 40 20 50
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 50 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CWC
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