881
FXUS62 KMFL 272318
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
718 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
16Z MESOANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK 500MB RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -6C TO -7C
RANGE. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
EXPANSIVE WELL- ESTABLISHED SURFACE RIDGING. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING,
EVIDENT BY SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 300MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ACARS DATA FROM KFLL, KPBI, AND KMIA.
GIVEN THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW, THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
ONCE AGAIN DICTATE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. GIVEN THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES, CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY EVOLVE IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THAT PROPAGATE ALONG COLD POOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. 16Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS TO INITIATE
AND PROPAGATE ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORECAST PARAMETERS, THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH MID- LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH FORECAST DCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000-1200 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE AND SEA/GULF BREEZE, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE IN THE DAY IN
TANDEM WITH THE BEST 0-3KM CAPE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-
WIDE WITH SHARP SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE IN AND AROUND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A SIMILAR PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ALOFT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW STILL ONGOING AT THE SURFACE. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ALOFT WITH FAIRLY LACKLUSTER
FLOW, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN MESOSCALE PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE AFTERNOON WEATHER PATTERN REGIME. POP-UP SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A FOCI OF CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MEAGER
ONCE AGAIN, FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG+ WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GET MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HAZARDS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE HORIZON FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS A COMBINATION
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND DAYTIME
HEATING RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE EROSION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OUT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION, PRIMARILY TRANSITING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND POINTS
NORTHWARD, PERIPHERAL DYNAMICS MAY ASSIST IN GREATER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS 500MB TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER IN THE -8C TO -9C RANGE. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCI FOR INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DUE IN
LARGE PART TO A LOSS OF SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FROM THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO.
A GREAT POINT WAS MADE IN THE OVERNIGHT DISCUSSION AND THIS BRIEF
BLURB WILL REINFORCE IT. THERE ARE CERTAIN PARAMETERS ON THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT POINT TO SOME LEVEL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2
INCHES AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WITH A LONG WARM CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND THE FORECAST CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN
TIME. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND
RELATED CONCRETE DETAILS. AS WE GET PAST THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, THE
FORECAST SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. L/V WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SHRA CHANCES ALONG BOTH COASTS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS INLAND AND WELL AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, SO ONLY VCSH
IS ISSUED FOR NOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE AT AROUND 10
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A GULF BREEZE. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAY CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 90 80 90 / 20 30 20 40
WEST KENDALL 77 92 77 92 / 20 30 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 79 92 / 20 40 20 50
HOMESTEAD 79 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 88 / 20 40 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 79 88 / 20 40 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 81 94 80 93 / 20 40 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 78 89 / 30 40 20 60
BOCA RATON 78 92 78 90 / 30 40 20 50
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 50 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...REDMAN
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