297
FXUS62 KMFL 081114
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
714 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WHILE
THE LAST REMNANTS OF A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE LAST DAY OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER,
WITH 30-40% CHANCES FOR RAIN MOSTLY CONSTRAINED TO CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP AS A RESULT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR
THE EAST COAST, AND MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COASTLINES, AND LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
RIDGING COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE ON MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND THE LAST OF
THE SAHARAN DUST DISSIPATES. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE,
THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THEIR ACTIVE STATE AND
UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, FOCUS THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MORE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY COULD BE PEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW SUNDAY'S, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US ON
TUESDAY, AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AGAIN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, PROMOTING CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A
RETURN TO SEASONAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, BUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE EAST COAST METRO IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR
TRYING TO COME BACK TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN
INCREASING EASTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW, BUT THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THIS DRIER AIR IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE WARM, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO
REMAIN BALMY, ONLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTLINES
AND LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO WEATHER
CONCERNS. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT APF WHICH WILL SEE A SW WIND AROUND 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. WINDS IN THE GULF COULD VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 79 89 80 / 30 10 40 20
WEST KENDALL 92 76 91 77 / 30 10 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 91 80 / 30 10 40 20
HOMESTEAD 90 78 89 79 / 30 10 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 89 80 / 30 10 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 78 89 79 / 30 10 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 94 81 94 81 / 30 10 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 90 78 / 30 10 40 10
BOCA RATON 91 77 91 79 / 30 10 40 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...REDMAN
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