525
FXUS62 KMFL 181231
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
831 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, TODAY GENERALLY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ACARS SOUNDING DATA FROM SE
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND PWAT VALUES AS LOW AS 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE VALUES DO
APPEAR A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SW FLORIDA ACCORDING TO GOES TPW
DATA, BUT EVEN HERE IT'S PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 1.6 INCHES.
WITH THE STEADY SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE, A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND METRO SE FLORIDA WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR AND SW
FLORIDA. HREF ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OVER PORTIONS OF SW FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 2-3" POSSIBLE BASED ON LPMM DATA. AS FAR AS
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION, THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE DOESN'T
SUPPORT MORE THAN A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
WHILE THE CONVECTION INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. OVERALL, MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SE FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND FOCUS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EARLY IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE, BUT THEN
THIS SHIFTS AWAY FROM THERE AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AREAS BY
MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE RIDGE'S PRESENCE, NOT
EXPECTING MANY THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW EVEN DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR GULF COAST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC THAT PEAK IN
THE UPPER 80S. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100-105F
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
GLOBAL LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY GFS, SHOW SFC RIDGING
DOMINATING THE REGION, WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR THE
SECOND PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE, EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BECOMING THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL DEEPER
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, EARLY
MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE, EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC
ESE FLOW EACH DAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS POOR REGARDING A
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, GFS/EURO GUIDANCE SHOW AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE E CONUS. WHILE EITHER OF THESE FEATURES
COULD MODIFY THE DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE, THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE CHANCES OF THESE
FEATURES HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. THEREFORE, CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AT THE MOMENT AND WILL WAIT FOR
UPCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE DEVIATING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO.
GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOFLO, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S INLAND, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
NEAR THE COASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND, AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS NEAR THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
A FEW SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILING/VSBY WILL AFFECT SOME EAST
COAST TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z, OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR. MORE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA FROM
18Z-00Z. PROB30 FOR TSRA WITH MVFR AT KAPF INCLUDED FROM 20Z-00Z.
WIND 120-130 DEGREES 10-13 KNOTS, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
THROUGH 00Z, EXCEPT SW SEABREEZE AT KAPF 18Z-00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
A GENTLE TO SLIGHTLY MODERATE E/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ESE FLOW PERSISTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 80 89 79 / 30 20 30 20
WEST KENDALL 90 76 90 75 / 30 20 30 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 80 91 79 / 30 20 30 20
HOMESTEAD 89 78 89 77 / 30 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 78 / 30 20 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 79 89 78 / 30 20 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 93 81 93 80 / 30 20 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 90 78 / 30 20 30 10
BOCA RATON 91 78 91 78 / 40 20 30 10
NAPLES 91 75 91 74 / 50 40 60 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....17
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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