049
FXUS62 KMFL 191111
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
711 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH ADVECTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL AS A
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA, WITH BOTH
TRYING TO ERODE THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR THESE DISTURBANCES TO FULLY ERODE ITS PRESENCE AND AS A RESULT
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AT NIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING, BUT THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. POPS ARE FORECAST AT 70-80% TODAY AND
TOMORROW FOR THE GULF COAST AREAS AND 40-50% FOR THE EAST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC THAT
PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100-
105F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CUBA REGION WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. THEREFORE, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR/WEST COAST METRO AREAS EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST AREAS EACH DAY
EXCEPT AROUND 90 EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
100 TO 105 RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80 OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z. A WESTERLY GULF
BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KAPF. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG AND VIS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AND EVENING WILL FAVOR
INLAND AND SW FL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
A GENTLE E/SE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 79 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
WEST KENDALL 90 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 20
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 91 79 / 30 20 30 20
HOMESTEAD 89 77 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 78 / 30 20 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 30 20
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 91 78 / 30 20 20 10
BOCA RATON 90 77 91 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 74 89 75 / 70 50 60 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...JS
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