175
FXUS62 KMFL 192345
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT, HOWEVER, THE RIDGE DOES HOLD
STRONG AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHERN CARRIBEAN SEA AND
CUBA. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO
HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AS IT PASSES BY. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR THE CLASSIC EARLY
SUMMERTIME SET UP TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES BEING THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS WELL AS RATHER WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES, IT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH THE
STEERING FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND THE GULF BREEZE REMAINING PINNED
TO THE WEST COAST, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS AS IT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AND ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY
DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HIGH STRENGTHENING AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES
WESTWARD, THIS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAINING OVER THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH CONTINUED LACK OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, THE CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOW. HOWEVER, ONE OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
EXCEPT APF WITH PERIODS OF VFR/IFR VIS/CIGS THROUGH 01Z UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE TONIGHT,
THEN 10-12KT AFTER 15Z. WINDS AT KAPF WILL AGAIN SHIFT WESTWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 90 79 89 / 10 30 20 40
WEST KENDALL 74 90 75 90 / 10 30 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 79 92 79 92 / 10 30 20 40
HOMESTEAD 76 89 78 89 / 10 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 79 89 / 10 30 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 90 79 89 / 10 30 10 40
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 81 93 / 10 30 10 40
WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 78 90 / 10 30 10 40
BOCA RATON 77 91 78 91 / 10 30 10 40
NAPLES 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 30 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17
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