366
FXUS62 KMFL 201121
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW PERSISTING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE REGION, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SFC ALSO DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOFLO, KEEPING GENERALLY ESE WINDS
IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, LATEST MODELS SHOW
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA TOWARDS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE DESCRIBED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL KEEP PROVIDING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES RETURNING EACH DAY. BOTH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BECOME FOCAL
POINTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BUT WITH THE PREVAILING ESE
SYNOPTIC FLOW, BEST CHANCES FOR POPS/WX COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND OVERTAKES THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE (ALSO
DESCRIBED BY LATEST NBM POPS). IN ADDITION, MORNING SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA KEEP 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-5C TO -7C, ALONG WITH SOME MODEST DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE
MID LEVELS. AND ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN MOST
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS,
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE SLOWER OR STATIONARY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST COAST AREAS WHERE THE GULF BREEZE COULD KEEP CONVECTION
PINNED AGAINST THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW
90S, WARMEST TODAY, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND EVEN EXPANDING BROADLY INTO THE E CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOFLO
AND KEEPING A GENERALLY ESE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN GENERAL, A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR/WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND AND REACHES THE WESTERN HALF OF SOFLO. AND JUST AS IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
DYNAMIC/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP.
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REACH
GENERALLY THE LOW 90S. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW-
MID 70S INLAND, AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE ESE LATER TODAY AND WINDS AT KAPF TURNING
FROM THE W IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE GULF BREEZE INTRUSION.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING BUT
IMPACTS TO SITES WILL BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED. BROADER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN INLAND OF
THE SITES WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY PERIODS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 79 89 80 / 40 30 40 20
WEST KENDALL 90 75 90 76 / 40 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 92 80 / 40 20 40 20
HOMESTEAD 89 78 89 79 / 50 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 89 80 / 40 20 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 80 / 40 20 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 93 80 93 82 / 40 20 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 89 79 / 30 20 40 20
BOCA RATON 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 40 20
NAPLES 89 75 90 74 / 70 30 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV
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