027
FXUS62 KMFL 201919
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AS MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -7C
ACROSS THE REGION AND LIGHT EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. MESOSCALE
PHENOMENA ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON WEATHER REGIME AS
STRONGER BACKGROUND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ACTED TO PUSH THE
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE INLAND WITH STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. A GULF BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE
GULF COAST AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH
KINEMATICS REMAIN RATHER LACKLUSTER AND MEAGER WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE 5.5 C/KM RANGE AND 500MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER
SIDE, DRY AIR IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN AND LOCALIZED ASCENT ALONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GIVEN THE VORTICITY STRETCHING ALONG
THE GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW, CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THE SLOWER OR
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS WHERE THE GULF BREEZE KEEPS
CONVECTION PINNED LONGER AGAINST THE COAST. THE 12Z HREF LPMM FROM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOME GULF COAST LOCALES TODAY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A FLOOD ADVISORY OR TWO IF THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL FALLS OVER URBAN AREAS THAT ARE STILL WATER LOGGED FROM
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL.
AFTER THE DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL DRIVEN ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER SUNSET, A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
INSTABILITY LADEN WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM. THESE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST VIA THE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN AFTER
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND EVEN EXPANDING BROADLY INTO THE E CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOFLO
AND KEEPING A GENERALLY ESE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN GENERAL, A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN SHIFTING TO
INTERIOR/WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND AND REACHES THE WESTERN HALF OF SOFLO. AND JUST AS IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
DYNAMIC/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP.
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REACH
GENERALLY THE LOW 90S. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW-
MID 70S INLAND, AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AROUND 19Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS POTENTIALLY BRINGING SUB-MVFR
CIGS/VIS TO KAPF BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AFTER 02-04Z.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING
UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY PERIODS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 89 80 90 / 30 50 40 60
WEST KENDALL 74 90 76 90 / 20 50 30 60
OPA-LOCKA 79 91 80 90 / 20 50 40 60
HOMESTEAD 77 89 79 89 / 30 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 88 / 30 50 40 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 20 50 30 60
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 82 92 / 20 50 30 60
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 79 90 / 20 60 30 60
BOCA RATON 79 91 79 90 / 30 60 30 60
NAPLES 74 90 74 91 / 40 70 30 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HADI
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