634
FXUS62 KMFL 211123
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD HEADING INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL, THE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WHILE ARRESTING THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE GULF
SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE A TAD HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN INLAND AND OVER TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
SOME MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY STOUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM COULD
FEATURE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE PONDING OF WATER IN URBANIZED OR POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OFFERING
LITTLE IN TERMS OF RELIEF WITH A RANGE FROM WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S. ANYONE PLANNING TO PARTAKE IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL HYDRATED AND PLAN FOR COOLING/REST BREAKS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE MID-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO REMAIN. THE GENERALLY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL KEEP FAVORING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WHILE PINNING
THE GULF SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL KEEP THE PATTERN OF CONVECTION OVER
THE WATER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNINGS. AS THE MORNING CONTINUES SOME
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM COULD MOVE ASHORE. AS THE MORNING TURNS
TO AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL FOCUS INLAND AND EVENTUALLY THAT FOCUS
WILL TRANSLATE WEST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH AN EVENING RETREAT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH
80S/90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S/100S. THE EBB AND FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SAHARAN DUST WILL HELP DETERMINE THE LOWER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DAYS VERSUS THE HIGHER COVERAGE DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH PASSING RA/SHRA ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS
FOR EAST COAST SITES. SHRA/TSRA CHANGES SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH IMPACTS MORE LIKELY FOR KAPF. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE IN
LATER TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS
OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A HIGH RISK MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN PLANNED ACTIVITIES ON SUNDAY ON FORT LAUDERDALE
BEACH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 79 89 80 / 50 40 60 40
WEST KENDALL 90 76 90 77 / 50 40 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 91 80 90 80 / 50 40 60 30
HOMESTEAD 89 79 89 79 / 50 50 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 80 / 50 40 70 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 80 89 80 / 60 40 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 93 81 92 81 / 60 40 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 90 79 90 80 / 60 30 60 30
BOCA RATON 91 79 90 79 / 60 40 60 30
NAPLES 90 74 90 74 / 70 40 70 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...ATV
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