037
FXUS62 KMFL 221145
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US TODAY
AND MONDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL SNEAK UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY WHICH
WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY, HOWEVER THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METRO THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THE FOCUS OF MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO
INLAND AND SW FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10 C MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SOME HAIL OVER INLAND AND SW FL.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WEAK IMPULSE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY SO A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL POPS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AIDED BY THE
SEA-BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER
INLAND SW FL TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THIS WEEK WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING STEADY OVER THE EASTERN US.
PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS, AND THEN SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FL.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
AND LOW TEMPS 70-80 ACROSS SOUTH FL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING. WINDS AT KAPF WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE GULF BREEZE MOVES INLAND. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST COAST, THEN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z. MOST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER
21Z. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MODERATE E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SUNDAY. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS, A HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 80 89 79 / 70 40 50 20
WEST KENDALL 89 77 89 76 / 70 40 50 30
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 91 79 / 70 40 50 20
HOMESTEAD 89 79 89 79 / 70 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 79 / 70 40 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 80 89 79 / 70 40 60 20
PEMBROKE PINES 92 82 92 81 / 70 40 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 89 79 89 79 / 70 30 50 20
BOCA RATON 90 79 90 79 / 70 40 50 20
NAPLES 90 74 92 74 / 70 50 70 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV
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