137
FXUS62 KMFL 222304
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
A POOL OF COOLER AIR ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES (-8C TO -9C) AND A SLIGHT WIND
DIRECTION DEVIATION. ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT BY SYNOPTIC STANDARDS,
IN THE SUMMER-TIME ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, THESE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS
CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES ACT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES (6.0
TO 6.5 C/KM) AND ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO BUILD,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOCALIZED ASCENT OF BOUNDARIES AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. GIVEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC FREEZING LEVEL TODAY, MORE
OF THE HAIL FORMATION GROWTH ZONE (-20C TO -30C) MAY BE ACCESSIBLE
TO DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
HAIL WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE COLLAPSE OF THE CORES
THAT MAY RESULT IN THE MOST PRESSING THREAT TODAY, ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FORECASTED DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-
1100 J/KG WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG+ MAY
RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HAZARDS SUCH AS
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TODAY DUE
TO ENHANCED EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, THE OVERNIGHT HREF LPMM DID SHOW
THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1-3 INCHES WHERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TODAY. IF THIS OCCURS OVER THE NAPLES METRO OR
NEARBY POPULATED AREAS, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
AS THE WEAK IMPULSE EXITS TO THE WEST TONIGHT, THE DAY IN DAY OUT
TREND OF NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE BEFORE A PIVOT TO INLAND AREAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO -6C TO -7C TOMORROW WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE MORE MEAGER COMPARED TO TODAY. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ONE OR TWO MORE ROBUST STRONG CORES DEVELOPING BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS TOMORROW.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACTING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, POTENTIALLY INTO THE 70S AT
TIMES. OVERNIGHT, A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
RINSE AND REPEAT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND OUR SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
INSTABILITY OVER THE GULFSTREAM WATERS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY BEFORE ACTIVITY FOCUSES ACROSS THE
INLAND AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD,
HOWEVER THE TRAJECTORY AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES COULD CHANGE
AS WE MOVE FORWARD SO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IF THESE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DO PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, COOLER 500MB TEMPS
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ENHANCED
DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOW
TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT APF AND PBI AND THEN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE METRO. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
WILL FAVOR INLAND AND SW FL, THUS VCTS IS IN AT APF AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MODERATE E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS,
A HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 89 80 89 / 40 50 30 60
WEST KENDALL 76 90 75 90 / 40 50 20 60
OPA-LOCKA 80 91 80 92 / 40 50 20 50
HOMESTEAD 79 89 78 89 / 40 50 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 88 79 88 / 30 50 30 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 89 79 89 / 30 50 30 50
PEMBROKE PINES 81 92 81 93 / 30 50 30 50
WEST PALM BEACH 79 90 78 89 / 30 50 30 50
BOCA RATON 79 90 78 91 / 30 50 30 50
NAPLES 74 91 74 92 / 50 70 20 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page