629
FXUS62 KMFL 230502
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN US EARLY
THIS WEEK, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE WEAK IMPULSE THAT ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE WEST AND A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE COASTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THEN THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO INLAND AND SW FL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
CONVECTION WANES TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND SW FL TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION FAVORING
INLAND AND SW FL. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
CHANGES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING
RAINFALL CHANCES EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND WEAK
STEERING FLOWS. WHILE THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR INLAND AND SW FL, IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FAILS TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH INLAND, PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
METRO MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN AN INCREASED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT, BUT IT'S
STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND SW FL TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT APF AND PBI AND THEN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE METRO. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
WILL FAVOR INLAND AND SW FL, THUS VCTS IS IN AT APF AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS OF 1-3 FT
ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FLOW WEAKENS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE RIP RISK WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 80 89 79 / 50 30 60 20
WEST KENDALL 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 91 80 92 79 / 50 20 50 20
HOMESTEAD 89 78 89 78 / 50 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 79 / 50 30 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 79 89 79 / 50 30 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 92 81 93 81 / 50 30 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 89 78 / 50 30 50 20
BOCA RATON 90 78 91 78 / 50 30 50 20
NAPLES 91 74 92 74 / 70 20 70 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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