044
FXUS62 KMFL 231759
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
159 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
16Z RTMA AND ACARS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A DUALITY OF SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE PREVAILING WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS BREEZY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA, ALABAMA, AND
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
CONTINUED EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, RESULTING IN 500MB FLOW
OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A DRIER COLUMN OF AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION TODAY WITH REDUCED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES AS THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE ADVECTS FURTHER
WEST INTO THE GULF. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
THUS FAR TODAY IN THE FORM OF LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE OF MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR CUMULUS FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, WHILE SPATIAL COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, THE CONFLUENCE OF SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY AS A
PINNED GULF BREEZE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW PREVENTS
INWARD ADVANCEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE HAS DEPARTED OUR
REGION, 500MB TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE -7C TO -8C
RANGE, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING HAS ACTED TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
AND DCAPE VALUES MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE USUAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS (CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL)
AS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AND METRO COLLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED, ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ONCE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF BREEZE WHERE THINGS ALWAYS TEND TO
OVERACHIEVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SUDDEN
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS, A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL RESUME ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PICKS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW 70S
POSSIBLE INLAND AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. DIRECTLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO EVEN LOW
80S ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
500MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ON TUESDAY AS 500MB FLOW ORIENTS
MORE OUT OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EAST COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY BEFORE ACTIVITY
FOCUSES ACROSS INLAND AND WESTERN LOCALES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) IN THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
DETERMINISTIC MODELS (EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN) CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NOW ASIDE
FROM THE FANCY LINGO AND ACCOMPANYING RIVETING ACRONYM, WHAT IS THE
IMPACT OF TUTT'S ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA? IN THE
SIMPLEST EXPLANATION POSSIBLE I CAN GIVE, IT IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT BRINGS A COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER
AIR (CURRENTLY MODELED -10C TO -11C) WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, PROMOTE LOW LEVEL ASCENT, AND LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS
THE REGION. WHAT THAT ENTAILS FOR US HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS A
BOOST IN NOCTURNAL (OVERNIGHT) AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD OF TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. A LOWER FREEZING LEVEL WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO A WIND
THREAT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
SURFACE RIDGING WANES IN INTENSITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN INITIATION
OF THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST METRO BEFORE
ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS,
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WETTER AND MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE REGION. DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AND BETTER SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS (TUTT) WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF SEEING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS URBAN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 80
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SHRA OCCURRING AT EAST COAST TERMINALS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FLOW WEAKENS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE RIP RISK WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 89 79 89 / 30 50 30 60
WEST KENDALL 75 90 74 89 / 30 50 20 60
OPA-LOCKA 80 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 60
HOMESTEAD 78 88 78 88 / 30 50 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 88 / 30 50 30 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 79 89 / 30 50 30 60
PEMBROKE PINES 81 92 81 92 / 30 50 30 60
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 78 90 / 30 50 30 60
BOCA RATON 78 90 78 90 / 30 50 30 60
NAPLES 73 92 74 91 / 20 60 20 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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