402
FXUS62 KMFL 240545
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TODAY WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH THE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILING. THIS WILL FAVOR
MOVE CONVECTION INLAND AND OVER TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COOLED
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH
SOME PORTIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COULD STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 80
DEGREES.
A DEEPER-LAYERED REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL RETREAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT EMERGES FROM THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WEDNESDAY. A COOLER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH IN TURN COULD PROMOTE MORE STOUT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INCLUDING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOW OVER THE
REGION, THE SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL NOT HAVE THE RELIABLE EASTERLY
FLOW TO HELP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ADVANCE INLAND OR INHIBIT THE
GULF BREEZE FROM ADVANCING EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A SHIFT IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL FURTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THIS TUTT FEATURE REFLECTS ON THE MID-LEVEL WITH A DECENT TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY COULD DEVELOP INTO A LOW OVER THE PENINSULA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE FEATURE MOVING NORTHWEST VERY
SLOWLY, THE BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT IT DRAWS IN BEHIND IT COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE WARM, SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY
LESS UNSETTLED NATURE TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT AFTER 15Z. SOME MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEN MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INLAND AND INTO
THE WEST COAST AFTER 21Z. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR
PERIODS WILL BE AT APF IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER THE RIP RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 79 89 78 / 60 40 70 40
WEST KENDALL 90 74 89 74 / 60 40 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 91 78 / 60 40 70 40
HOMESTEAD 88 77 89 77 / 60 40 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 88 78 / 60 40 70 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 78 89 78 / 60 40 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 93 80 92 80 / 60 40 70 40
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 78 / 60 30 60 30
BOCA RATON 90 77 90 78 / 60 40 60 40
NAPLES 93 74 91 73 / 70 20 80 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...17
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