079
FXUS62 KMFL 242314
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
714 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SCATTERING OF LOW-CAPPED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING. ZOOMING OUT AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE,
VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS 16Z RTMA AND ACARS ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE DUALITY OF SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE RIDGING IN PLAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF INFLUENCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT LEAST FOR TODAY
HOWEVER, PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, ALABAMA, AND MISSISSIPPI WILL REMAIN STOUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, 500MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A CONTINUED EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES,
RESULTING IN 500MB FLOW OUT OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, WHILE MOST STORMS WILL BE "RUN OF
THE MILL" LEVELS OF INTENSITY TODAY, THE CONFLUENCE OF SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY AS A
PINNED GULF BREEZE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW PREVENTS
INWARD ADVANCEMENT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE VALUES MAY ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE USUAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
(CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL) AS POSSIBLE ACROSS
COASTAL AND METRO COLLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN A LOCALIZED BOOST FROM THE GULF BREEZE, ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
EVEN PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FUNNEL CLOUD OR WEAK LANDSPOUT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE THINGS ALWAYS TEND TO OVERACHIEVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS OUR REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SUDDEN FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS, A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL RESUME ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PICKS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LOW 70S POSSIBLE INLAND AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA. DIRECTLY ALONG THE EAST COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS (EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN) FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO UPTREND IN THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) DIRECTLY ALOFT OF THE
REGION BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. NOW ASIDE FROM THE FANCY LINGO AND
ACCOMPANYING RIVETING ACRONYM, WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF TUTT'S ON OUR
LOCAL WEATHER HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA? IN THE SIMPLEST EXPLANATION
POSSIBLE I CAN GIVE, IT IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BRINGS A COLDER
POOL OF AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR (CURRENTLY
MODELED -10C TO -11C) WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, PROMOTE
LOW LEVEL ASCENT, AND LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS THE REGION.
WHAT THAT ENTAILS FOR US HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS A BOOST IN
NOCTURNAL (OVERNIGHT) AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD OF TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WHILE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY), THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO STORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
INVERTED V UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS, THE COLDER POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A LOWER FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID IN
THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS
THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST PM THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO ALSO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. IN
CONJUNCTION, A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TUTT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON THURSDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE WITH A SATURATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
AREA. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS SURFACE RIDGING WANES IN INTENSITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN
INITIATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
METRO BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WETTER
AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE REGION. DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND BETTER SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS (TUTT) WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF SEEING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND
A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS URBAN AREAS IF
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS. ACTIVITY MAY FIRE ALONG BOTH SEA-
BREEZES BEFORE FOCUSING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
AS THE TUTT PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
500MB FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE -8C TO -9C RANGE WHICH COULD
STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. CONVECTION WILL
FIRE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZES ONCE AGAIN BEFORE FOCUSING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING ALSO RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND FOCUS MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON
STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
E/NE WINDS 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z. A
BRIEF WESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT APF.
COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH THE GULF AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER THE RIP RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 89 78 89 / 40 60 40 70
WEST KENDALL 74 89 74 89 / 30 60 40 70
OPA-LOCKA 79 91 78 91 / 40 60 40 70
HOMESTEAD 77 88 77 89 / 40 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 88 / 40 60 40 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 89 78 89 / 40 60 40 70
PEMBROKE PINES 80 92 78 92 / 40 60 40 70
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 78 89 / 40 60 30 70
BOCA RATON 77 90 77 90 / 40 60 40 70
NAPLES 73 91 73 89 / 20 70 50 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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