870
FXUS62 KMFL 291118
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
718 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
A VERY DRY SAHARAN DUST PLUME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. AS A RESULT, MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH DAY HAS POPPED UP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER BOUNDARY COLLISIONS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE INTERIOR. NOW, THE APPROACHING TUTT
(AND THE RESULTANT COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
DYNAMICAL FORCING) WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, CAPABLE OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL,
MAINLY AFTER 5PM AND INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS.
MOSTLY RINSE AND REPEAT CONDITIONS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE TUTT
LINGERS. THE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT
BACK INTO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
CONSTRAINED TO SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY PROCESSES, WITH THE POTENTIAL
ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY THE TUTT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HEAT
INDICES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD PEAK IN THE
LOW 100S. BALMY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS, AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY, USHERING IN A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE DEVELOPING TROUGH,
AND THE TROUGH'S GRADUAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL HELP ERODE THE
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN THE
RESPECTIVE SURFACE HIGH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ALTHOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY ISN'T FORECAST TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA, ITS INFLUENCE WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FLOW TO VEER FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST STARTING TUESDAY, LEADING TO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INSTEAD OF INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR
OUT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH
PWATS CLIMBING INTO 1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY STRONG
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY AS SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS OR TRENDING AT THIS TIME TO
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
L/V WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ENHANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OUT
OF A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL TERMINALS. A GULF BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KAPF BETWEEN 17-19Z. SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AROUND 19-22Z MAINLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BUT COULD RESULT IN SHRA MOVING BACK TOWARDS
BOTH COASTS AND THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS AND WIND SHIFT ONCE
AGAIN WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES TOWARDS TERMINALS. L/V
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
EACH DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS
ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 40 30
WEST KENDALL 88 74 89 75 / 30 20 40 30
OPA-LOCKA 90 78 91 79 / 40 20 40 30
HOMESTEAD 88 77 88 77 / 30 20 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 87 78 / 40 20 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 77 88 78 / 40 30 40 30
PEMBROKE PINES 92 80 92 80 / 40 20 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 89 77 / 40 30 40 30
BOCA RATON 89 77 90 77 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 91 74 89 74 / 50 40 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HADI
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