390
FXUS62 KMFL 300544
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THIS WEEK,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE (MOSTLY) DRIVEN BY LOCAL
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PLAYING A PIVOTAL ROLE. THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) OVER THE BAHAMAS
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE >
3000 J/KG, 500 MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW -8C AND LAPSE RATES 6-7
C/KM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT, CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL, MAINLY AFTER 5PM AND INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR, SOUTHWEST FL AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE TUTT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, PUSHING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL START TO VEER FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INSTEAD OF INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
LAST OF THE LINGERING SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR OUT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH PWATS CLIMBING
INTO 1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HEAT
INDICES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD PEAK IN THE
LOW 100S. BALMY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS, AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATER THIS WEEK, PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH AND
AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS, WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 2
INCHES EACH DAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES IN KEEPING ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL QPF
ALSO HINTS AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH EVENING, WITH VALUES IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
EACH DAY IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST STEMS FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEK. SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY FORMING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(COULD BE OVER THE GULF WATERS, OR OVER THE PANHANDLE, OR EVEN
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS). HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS
OR A CONSISTENT TREND CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. IF A
SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP, IT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP ENHANCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION, AND ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING IMPACTS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS AT KAPF WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SEEM MOSTLY
CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST, WELL INLAND OF EAST
COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KAPF COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY MOVE OVER
THE SITE LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE COULD SHIFT
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 50 30 60 30
WEST KENDALL 89 74 90 75 / 50 30 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 91 79 / 50 30 60 30
HOMESTEAD 88 78 89 78 / 40 30 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 79 / 50 30 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 78 / 50 30 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 92 80 93 81 / 50 30 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 88 76 / 50 30 70 40
BOCA RATON 90 77 91 78 / 50 30 70 40
NAPLES 90 73 89 76 / 60 40 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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