099
FXUS62 KMFL 301727
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
NEAR TERM: THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT ATLANTIC COAST
CLEAR OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WITH THE GULF BREEZE AND DIURNAL
HEATING, THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND SW FL, WITH SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE 18Z SOUNDING HAS NOT COMPOSED YET, BUT THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY PASSING STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDS SUCH AS GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE
KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AT 20% CHANCE IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL FORMAT OR NOT, THE INCOMING
MOISTURE AND ACTIVITY WILL BRING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH PLENTIFUL
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO HAZARDS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES: WEATHER.GOV/MFL OR NHC.NOAA.GOV
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THIS WEEK,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE (MOSTLY) DRIVEN BY LOCAL
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PLAYING A PIVOTAL ROLE. THE PRESENCE OF A
LINGERING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) OVER THE BAHAMAS
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE >
3000 J/KG, 500 MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW -8C AND LAPSE RATES 6-7
C/KM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT, CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL, MAINLY AFTER 5PM AND INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR, SOUTHWEST FL AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE TUTT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, PUSHING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL START TO VEER FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INSTEAD OF INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
LAST OF THE LINGERING SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR OUT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH PWATS CLIMBING
INTO 1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HEAT
INDICES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD PEAK IN THE
LOW 100S. BALMY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS, AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATER THIS WEEK, PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH AND
AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS, WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 2
INCHES EACH DAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES IN KEEPING ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL QPF
ALSO HINTS AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH EVENING, WITH VALUES IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
EACH DAY IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST STEMS FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEK. SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY FORMING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(COULD BE OVER THE GULF WATERS, OR OVER THE PANHANDLE, OR EVEN
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS). HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS
OR A CONSISTENT TREND CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. IF A
SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP, IT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP ENHANCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION, AND ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING IMPACTS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED, INCLUDING OCCASIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS,
WITH THE ATLANTIC BREEZE AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THERE WILL
BE AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT APF. SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST SOUTH FL. ISO/SCT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE COULD SHIFT
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 89 79 90 / 30 60 30 40
WEST KENDALL 74 90 75 90 / 30 60 30 40
OPA-LOCKA 79 91 79 92 / 30 60 30 40
HOMESTEAD 78 89 78 90 / 30 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 89 / 30 60 30 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 78 89 / 30 60 30 50
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 81 93 / 30 60 30 50
WEST PALM BEACH 77 88 76 90 / 30 70 40 60
BOCA RATON 77 91 78 91 / 30 70 40 60
NAPLES 73 89 76 89 / 40 60 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...JS
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...JS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page