379
FXUS62 KMFL 012232
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
NEAR TERM: UNSETTLED CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR EAST COAST AND IMPACTING TERMINAL
SITES. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE, IT HAS FUELED THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PWATS 1.8-2.1").
PASSING STORMS HAVE BROUGHT GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, UP TO 25KT,
LIGHTNING, AND MINIMAL RAINFALL (0.1-0.25"). THERE IS POTENTIAL
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, AND ANY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS, FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN METRO, ESPECIALLY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SEA
BREEZES IMPACT THE ONGOING CONVECTION, IF ANY IS STILL AVAILABLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THIS WEEK,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE (MOSTLY) DRIVEN BY LOCAL
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PLAYING A PIVOTAL ROLE. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AND
WILL GRADUALLY PULL THE OFT-MENTIONED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (OR TUTT) NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, A POCKET
OF 500MB VORTICITY COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE BEGUN TO TREND
EASTWARD WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
EAST COAST METRO AND PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WITH
ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL VEER IN RESPONSE, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION, WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO 1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE, AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INSTEAD OF INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, WITH HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 00Z HREF LPMM
HINTS AT SOME POCKETS OF 4-5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS RURAL PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE PRECIP MAXES CAN SHIFT FROM
FORECAST TO REALITY, AND SUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HEAT
INDICES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD PEAK IN THE
LOW 100S. BALMY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS, AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDWEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LATER THIS WEEK, PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS, WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES EACH
DAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES IN KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METRO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL QPF ALSO HINTS AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH EVENING.
THE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD COMES IN THE FORM OF A
POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE BEING HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS "SOMETHING" DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF
WATERS, OR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, OR EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM...
BASICALLY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, NEAR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY LOOKS EVEN MORE MEAGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, REALLY HIGHLIGHTING HOW THE LACK OF CONSENSUS OR ANY TYPE OF
TREND CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST PROCESS. IF A SYSTEM DOES
DEVELOP, IT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP ENHANCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, AND ELEVATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. THIS SOLUTION WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FURTHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z PERIOD. LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL KEEP
MAINLY TO THE INTERIOR. APF MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 02Z. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DECLINE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VEERING WINDS IN
THE MORNING TO BECOME S/SW AT 10-15KT. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE COULD SHIFT
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 88 79 89 / 50 70 20 50
WEST KENDALL 75 89 75 89 / 50 70 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 79 91 79 92 / 50 70 20 50
HOMESTEAD 78 89 78 89 / 50 60 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 79 88 / 50 70 30 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 89 79 89 / 50 70 30 60
PEMBROKE PINES 80 92 80 93 / 50 70 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 76 89 / 60 80 30 70
BOCA RATON 77 90 77 91 / 60 70 30 60
NAPLES 76 89 77 88 / 40 70 30 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM: JS
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...JS
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