964
FXUS62 KMFL 030540
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
NEAR TERM: PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AS THE AREA BRIEFLY DRIES
OUT FROM SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WHILE SOME AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
CAMS DEPICT A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN AT THE 2 INCH MARK,
SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WITH SURFACE FLOW
REMAINING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL BE AT HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS WHERE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
MODELS DEPICT A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE E CONUS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SE AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN ERODING AND DISPLACING THE
CURRENT SFC RIDGE OVER THE STATE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
WEST ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL RESULT IN LOW-LVL WINDS
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SSW BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING AN INCREASING TREND IN POPS/WX
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH-RES/CAMS SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN HAVING A MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH 60-80
POPS FOR MUCH OF SOFLO, ALONG WITH MODEL PWATS UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES. THEREFORE, EXPECT A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS, MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND LPMM ESTIMATES SUGGEST POSSIBLE MAX
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS,
ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS OR WITH TERRAIN-ANCHORING.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK IS NOT SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS, HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH FLOW
LIKELY BECOMING MORE SSW BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HELP IN
KEEPING HIGHEST POPS/WX COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOFLO AND
THE LAKE REGION, WHERE LATEST FORECAST PWATS REMAIN AROUND THE 80-
90TH PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, EXPECT A CONTINUING THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE LOW 100S,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
KEEP SHOWING A POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
IN THE NE GULF WATERS OR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES IT MAY FURTHER ENHANCE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST NHCS ATL TWO SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION
OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME, LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A PREVAILING UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
AND REACHING INTO THE STATE. SE FLOW WILL AGAIN FAVOR INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO FOR BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
VCSH AROUND PBI AND FXE MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
GENERALLY SSW TODAY AT AROUND 10KT AFTER 14Z, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS AND CIGS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT-FUSE
AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS
OF ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 78 87 78 / 70 50 70 40
WEST KENDALL 89 74 87 74 / 70 40 70 50
OPA-LOCKA 90 78 90 78 / 70 50 70 40
HOMESTEAD 89 77 88 77 / 60 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 87 78 / 80 50 70 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 78 87 78 / 80 50 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 91 79 91 80 / 80 50 70 40
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 87 76 / 90 50 80 50
BOCA RATON 90 76 89 77 / 90 50 70 40
NAPLES 85 76 87 77 / 90 70 80 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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