710
FXUS62 KMFL 040516
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA IS BEING IMPACTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE SE
FL COASTLINE INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AT THIS TIME. AFTER
THIS BAND PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS, A LULL IN THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR MOST EASTERN METRO AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS COVERAGE
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED. ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
REACHING EASTERN METRO AREAS BY THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
MODEL ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
WHILE A SFC RIDGE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE. WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA, WINDS ACROSS SOFLO WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY, VEERING SW FOR PERIODS OF TIME DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE
THE POTENTIAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ALONG THE LINGERING
FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SE CONUS.
MODELS SHOW A 40 PERCENT CHANCE (MEDIUM CHANCE) OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF
THE FINAL OUTCOME, DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH POPS IN
THE 60-70 PERCENT, HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS, WITH GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
SOFLO. HIGH-RES/CAMS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 2-3" RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND LPMM ESTIMATES SHOW
POSSIBLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 4-5" RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS OR WITH TERRAIN-
ANCHORING. A FEW OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL DOESN'T PLACES SOFLO ON
THE MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY, BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES
COULD REACH THE LOW 100S, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SE
SEABOARD DURING THE WEEKEND. BUT LATEST OUTLOOK MAY SUGGEST THAT THE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOW FURTHER NE OF THE AREA, AND
MAY NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THE UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR SOFLO. THE FORECAST SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, BUT REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME, LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A PREVAILING UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA
STARTING MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST
ATLANTIC AND REACHING INTO THE STATE. SE FLOW WILL AGAIN FAVOR
INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO FOR BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VCSH AROUND APF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHILE
VFR PREVAILS OVER THE ATL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 14Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SSW TODAY AT AROUND 10KT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN REDUCED
VIS AND CIGS, MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SHORT-FUSE AMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 79 90 78 / 60 40 60 20
WEST KENDALL 88 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 20
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 92 79 / 60 40 60 20
HOMESTEAD 88 78 90 78 / 50 40 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 89 78 / 70 40 60 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 78 89 78 / 70 40 60 20
PEMBROKE PINES 91 80 93 81 / 70 40 60 20
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 89 76 / 70 50 70 20
BOCA RATON 89 76 91 77 / 70 50 60 20
NAPLES 87 77 88 78 / 60 50 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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