035
FXUS62 KMFL 041729
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY ACROSS SOUTH FL
AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS LOCKING
IN RICH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND WEST COAST OF FL. CLOUD COVER
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSTABILITY TODAY, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ENOUGH THIS
EVENING TO ALLOW SOME HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES TO CONTINUE. WHILE
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MOST TODAY, SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STORMS PASS OVER AN AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY HITTING 90
IF THEY CAN ACHIEVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COASTS.
FOR SATURDAY THE KEY QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS DISTURBANCE ENDS UP TRACKING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT MAY
ACTUALLY HELP PULL SOME DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FL, WITH PWAT VALUES
DROPPING UNDER 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY OVER SW FL. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THOUGH, AND REGARDLESS THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HEAT INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PEAK TO 100-104 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW IN THE SE US WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY
WASH OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL SEE
OUR S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEING SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN, AND THEN OCCASIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS COMING
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOW
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, SCT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH S/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS,
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AN ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 90 78 91 / 40 50 20 40
WEST KENDALL 74 90 75 91 / 30 50 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 77 92 79 93 / 50 50 20 40
HOMESTEAD 77 90 78 91 / 40 50 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 78 90 / 50 50 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 91 78 91 / 50 60 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 79 93 80 94 / 50 50 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 91 / 50 70 20 60
BOCA RATON 77 93 77 92 / 50 60 20 50
NAPLES 77 88 77 90 / 40 60 30 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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