357
FXUS62 KMFL 050539
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CURRENTLY OFF OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH NORTHWEST
AS TODAY PROGRESSES. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THIS SYSTEM
HAS FORMED ALONG WILL REMAIN DRAPED OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WIND
FLOW TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
IS REFLECTIVE IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.1 INCHES OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IN PLACE TODAY, THE GULF BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER
INLAND WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE GETS PINNED CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST FOCUS REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL START TO SHOW SLOW SIGNS OF A
TRANSITION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT THE SURFACE, TD 3 WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
DRAPED OFF TO THE NORTH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY
WASH OUT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH WASHES OUT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO RELAX WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO GRADUALLY DIMINSH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO PUSH OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL CAUSE
THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION UP TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
AS WELL PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAINLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE, THERE MAY BE SOME HEAT CONCERNS AS HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
APPROACH 105 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN.
WITH A LACK OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL START OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST STARTS TO RISE A BIT AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THIS
FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THIS GENERAL TIME FRAME, THERE
REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT FASTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHAT THIS MEANS AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS CONCERNED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THAT THIS
MAY HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM LATER ON
TUESDAY THROUGH LATER ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE EXACT DETAILS IN REGARDS TO
WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS SET UP, HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE KEEPING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IN PLACE, THIS WOULD FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AFTER 15Z AND
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR
TO THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME
GENTLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 78 91 78 / 60 30 40 10
WEST KENDALL 90 75 91 75 / 60 30 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 92 78 93 79 / 70 30 40 10
HOMESTEAD 90 77 91 77 / 60 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 90 78 / 70 30 40 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 78 91 78 / 70 30 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 93 80 94 80 / 70 30 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 91 76 / 80 30 60 10
BOCA RATON 92 77 93 77 / 70 30 50 10
NAPLES 89 78 90 77 / 70 50 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
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