524
FXUS62 KMFL 200517
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
117 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
THE DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A BATCH OF DRIER AIR BEING
FILTERED INTO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. PWATS
WILL BE AS LOW AS 1.2-1.3" AND NO HIGHER THAN 1.6-1.7" WHICH ARE
BOTH BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. ADD IN THE SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY
THE HIGH PRESSURE, AND WE HAVE A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST ON THE
HORIZON THIS WEEKEND. POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT AT BELOW 10% BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY, WHILE THE GULF COAST
AND INTERIOR ARE AT A MAX OF 10-20% ON SATURDAY AND 20-30% ON
SUNDAY. THEREFORE, NO NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT RELATES
TO CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND OTHER THAN THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE GULF SIDE TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS, BUT
LIKELY NOT TO SEVERE LEVELS.
SINCE THE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY QUIET THIS WEEKEND, THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL STAY ON THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY LESS SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT DURING THE DAY THERE IS AN
EXPECTATION THAT SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH IN RETURN CAN LOWER DEW POINTS BY A FEW DEGREES AND
THUS THE HEAT INDEX. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE DUE
EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER BREEZE OFF
THE ATLANTIC WORKING INLAND. THEREFORE, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
INDICES REACHING ADVISORY WILL CRITERIA WILL BE FOR THE GULF COAST
REGION AND WESTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS, BUT THE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
IS BELIEVED TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
TODAY. A SHORT-FUSED ADVISORY COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TODAY, BUT
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR SUNDAY, IT IS UNLIKELY AT THE
MOMENT THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED THEN AS WELL SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE
GULF AND WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A NE FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT A SURFACE LOW RESULTANT FROM LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT SW ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF FLORIDA AS WELL AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVECTING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. OVERALL, DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THEY WILL LIKELY CAUSE A
DISRUPTION IN THE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AT THIS CURRENT TIME THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEK AS THE DRIER
AIR FILTERS OUT OF THE AREA AND THESE DISTURBANCES START TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER, THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL STILL FIT A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN UNDER A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS MEANS THAT THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY TO NUMEROUS CATEGORY WHILE THE
EAST COAST AND METRO AREAS SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN HOT, BUT LIKELY
TRENDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN.
THE END OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE DRIER AGAIN AS
THE DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF AND BRIEF RIDGING
REBUILDING ONCE AGAIN, BUT THE REGION COULD STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA, THUS RAIN CHANCES DON'T DIFFER
MUCH FROM THE MID-WEEK PERIOD CURRENTLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AT APF
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE OUT OF THE WEST. ONLY
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW ARE INCLUDED AT APF IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VCTS, MOST OF WHICH SHOULD STAY EAST OF
THE TERMINAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. A GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITUATES ITSELF DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. A MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 92 79 / 20 0 20 10
WEST KENDALL 92 76 93 75 / 20 0 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 94 79 94 79 / 20 0 20 10
HOMESTEAD 91 79 91 78 / 20 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 91 79 / 10 0 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 81 95 81 / 10 0 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 93 77 / 10 0 10 10
BOCA RATON 92 78 93 78 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 94 78 93 79 / 30 10 40 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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