031
FXUS62 KMFL 200605
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS TODAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH MONDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SAME AREA OF THE GULF AS TWO DIFFERENT
DISTURBANCES START TO APPROACH THE REGION. ONE OF THESE WILL BE
COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE
SECOND ONE WILL BE A TUTT FURTHER OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE TUTT WILL POTENTIALLY PLAY MORE OF A FACTOR LATER THIS
COMING WEEK, BUT FOR NOW IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
NEVERTHELESS, TODAY WILL BASICALLY BE A RINSE AND REPEAT SITUATION
OF YESTERDAY WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WE ARE STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. POPS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND ONLY 20-30% FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE SAME SETUP, ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AS THE DRIER AIR COLUMN EXITS AND WE SEE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO RISE ON THE MARGINS TO 10-20% FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AND 50-60% FOR THE GULF COAST.
ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RELATED
TO HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HEAT
INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION LIKELY BETWEEN 100-105F FOR ATLANTIC COAST COUNTIES
AND 105-108F FOR GULF COAST COUNTIES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY IN COLLIER COUNTY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY EVEN AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS TO BE RE-INTRODUCED BACK INTO THE AREA. AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY, A HEAT
ADVISORY BECOMES A HIGHER POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND THE EVENING, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH RESULTANT FROM LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY A TUTT STARTS TO ADVECT WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AROUND THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, EVIDENCED BY ENSEMBLE
PWATS SHOWING 2.0+ INCHES RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
SSE DIRECTION AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES INTO THE GULF, THUS
WE SHOULD SEE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RATHER
THAN TARGETING A FEW AREAS. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
STILL FOR GULF COAST AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS, BUT POPS ARE MODERATE
TO HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY. SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ASSESSED IN THE COMING
DAYS AS FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE REFINED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
RETURNING. THIS WOULD BRING QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA, BUT
BEING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL COME TO
FRUITION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BIT OF A REGRESSION IN THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN, LIKELY RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S ON TUESDAY TO FALLING A BIT TO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND A BIT
HIGHER AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AT APF
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE OUT OF THE WEST. ONLY
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW ARE INCLUDED AT APF IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VCTS, MOST OF WHICH SHOULD STAY EAST OF
THE TERMINAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A GENTLE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA. A MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER 2 FEET FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY FOR THE GULF WATERS. BY MID-WEEK, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 92 78 / 10 0 20 10
WEST KENDALL 92 76 93 75 / 20 0 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 94 79 94 78 / 10 0 20 10
HOMESTEAD 91 79 91 78 / 10 0 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 91 78 / 10 0 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 79 92 78 / 10 0 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 82 96 81 / 10 0 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 93 77 / 10 0 10 10
BOCA RATON 93 78 94 78 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 94 78 93 78 / 30 20 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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