992
FXUS62 KMFL 210608
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE GULF TODAY BEFORE A SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT WILL
BE STARTING TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
CLOSER TO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL NOT PLAY A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE LOCAL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH PWATS RISING TO OVER 1.8-2.0+" FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER 2.0" FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
TOMORROW. SINCE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN TODAY'S WEATHER, RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE MODESTLY FOR RESPECTIVE AREAS WITH HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING FOR THE GULF COAST AND LOWER FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST. IN GENERAL, POPS ARE 50-60% FOR THE GULF COAST WHICH IS UP
FROM ABOUT 30% YESTERDAY, AND AROUND 20% FOR THE EAST COAST AND
METRO AREAS WHICH IS UP FROM UNDER 10% YESTERDAY. FOR TUESDAY WITH
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHING AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID-LEVELS, THIS ENERGY AND LIFT
WILL UTILIZE THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL AREAS SEEING AT LEAST 40-50% POPS AND HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 80%.
WITH TODAY LIKELY BEING THE FINAL DRIER DAY UNDER THIS CURRENT
PATTERN, HOT TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN AND WITH INCREASING DEEPER MOISTURE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO STAY ELEVATED AND
INCREASE THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM 12PM - 6PM FOR ALL COUNTIES WHEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK, LIKELY AROUND 104-108F FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND 105-110F FOR THE WESTERN HALF.
GENERAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S BOTH OF THE NEXT
TWO DAYS, BUT INCREASING RAIN ON TUESDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT RISK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
FOR THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE TUTT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH THE CENTER
OF IT MAY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA.
REGARDLESS, PLENTY OF ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THIS TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT (PWATS OF 2+ INCHES). THEREFORE, WE CAN EXPECT A SWATH
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS WELL. QPF IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH OF THE LOW AND, BUT THIS SHOULD
BECOME MORE REFINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO GIVE ESTIMATED QPF
ACROSS THE REGION.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
RETURNING AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST. THIS WOULD BRING SOME QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA AND
LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IF THE PATTERN CONTINUES
TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BIT OF A REGRESSION IN THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN, LIKELY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS
HITTING THE LOW 90S. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND A BIT HIGHER AGAIN
POTENTIALLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SEA- BREEZE CIRCULATIONS PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG BOTH
COASTS LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASES LATER TODAY, SO VCTS IS IN FOR ALL SITES AFTER
20Z, ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL
DIRECTLY OTHER THAN MAYBE APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW FOR THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT WHEN THE
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED UNDER 2
FEET FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, MAINLY FOR THE GULF WATERS. BY MID-WEEK, SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 78 90 78 / 20 20 60 30
WEST KENDALL 93 75 91 75 / 30 10 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 95 79 92 78 / 20 20 60 30
HOMESTEAD 92 78 90 78 / 20 10 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 78 90 78 / 20 20 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 79 90 79 / 20 20 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 96 81 94 80 / 20 20 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 93 78 91 76 / 20 20 60 20
BOCA RATON 94 78 93 77 / 20 20 60 30
NAPLES 93 78 91 76 / 50 50 70 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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