136
FXUS62 KMFL 221129
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SC/GA BORDER AREA TO SETTLING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY, THE TUTT LOW IS CURRENTLY PRESENT NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A QUALITY LIFTING MECHANISM THAT ALONG
WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE (PWATS OF 2+ INCHES, PERHAPS EVEN UP
TO 2.5 INCHES IN SPOTS) WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
GO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR CLOSER TO CUBA, BUT PLENTY OF ENERGY
WILL STILL STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED, BUT OVERALL WILL COVER MUCH MORE SURFACE
AREA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA VERSUS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, ADDITIONAL
FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZES TO SPARK SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
CURRENTLY, EXPECTED RAINFALL EACH DAY THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS IN THE
RANGE OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SHOWING ABOUT 1.5-2.5 INCHES, WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE HREF LPMM DOES SHOW 6-HOUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OF 3-5 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS, SO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NEVERTHELESS, FLOODING EVEN ON A LOCAL LEVEL DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A
LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING, BUT IT JUST CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL, WHILE THERE IS NO TRUE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN
THAT PARAMETERS DON'T JUMP OFF THE CHARTS, THE DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES TO
GET A COUPLE OF STRONGER CORES. GUIDANCE ALSO HIGHLIGHTS DECENT
DCAPE VALUES (700-1000 J/KG) TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DOWNBURSTS. THUS, THERE DOES REMAIN A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF NEAR-
SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE RAIN HITS AND LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS AND
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY
OF INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
FORCING FROM THE LOW WILL HAVE DEPARTED OFF INTO THE GULF, SO
POTENTIALLY LESS RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS RETURNING
AS SOME SAHARAN DUST (SAL) ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA AND LESS COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF THIS SETUP HOLDS, ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND DIURNAL MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZES.
RIGHT NOW, PWATS LOOK TO FALL WELL BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY (UNDER
1.4-1.5 INCHES OR EVEN LESS) AND THEN REBOUNDS A BIT ON SUNDAY, SO
THIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL SPATIAL COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH MOST AREAS LIKELY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S. WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND A BIT HIGHER AGAIN POTENTIALLY TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND BRING BACK RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT. THIS THREAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
EAST COAST SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WITH A
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THE EAST COAST AND GULF COAST SEA
BREEZES LOOK TO WORK IN AROUND 16Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AROUND
NIGHTFALL, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
OVERALL BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A GENTLE AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE ATLANTIC AND WEST FOR THE GULF WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SEA
BREEZES. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO MODERATE SPEEDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE DISTURBANCE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CAN CAUSE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SEAS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNDER 2 FEET FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 70 50 50 30
WEST KENDALL 92 75 90 77 / 70 40 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 93 78 92 80 / 70 40 50 20
HOMESTEAD 91 78 89 80 / 60 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 80 / 60 50 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 78 91 81 / 60 50 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 95 80 93 82 / 70 40 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 79 / 70 50 50 20
BOCA RATON 93 76 92 80 / 70 50 50 20
NAPLES 91 77 91 77 / 70 60 70 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...ATV
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