265
FXUS62 KMFL 222319
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SC/GA BORDER AREA TO SETTLING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT LOW IS CURRENTLY PRESENT NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM THAT, ALONG
WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE, WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GO OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR CLOSER TO CUBA, BUT PLENTY OF ENERGY WILL
STILL STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED, BUT OVERALL WILL COVER MUCH MORE SURFACE
AREA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA VERSUS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE TUTT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, ADDITIONAL FORCING
WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZES TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CURRENTLY, EXPECTED RAINFALL EACH DAY THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS IN THE
RANGE OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO
SHOWING ABOUT 1.5-2.5 INCHES, WHICH WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE HREF LPMM DOES SHOW 6-HOUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OF 3-5 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS, SO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NEVERTHELESS, FLOODING EVEN ON A LOCAL LEVEL DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A
LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING, BUT IT JUST CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL, WHILE THERE IS NO TRUE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN
THAT PARAMETERS DON'T JUMP OFF THE CHARTS, THE DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES TO
GET A COUPLE OF STRONGER CORES. GUIDANCE ALSO HIGHLIGHTS DECENT
DCAPE VALUES (700-1000 J/KG) TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DOWNBURSTS. THUS, THERE DOES REMAIN A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF NEAR-
SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THE NEXT
TWO DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE RAIN HITS AND LOW 90S TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY ON THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THE LOW WILL HAVE
DEPARTED OFF INTO THE GULF, SO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE BEGINNING OF A DOWNTREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS RETURNING
AS SOME SAHARAN DUST (SAL) ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA AND LESS COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF THIS SETUP HOLDS, ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND DIURNAL MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZES.
RIGHT NOW, PWATS LOOK TO FALL WELL BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY (UNDER
1.4-1.5 INCHES OR EVEN LESS) AND THEN REBOUNDS A BIT ON SUNDAY, SO
THIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL SPATIAL COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH MOST AREAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S.
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND A BIT HIGHER AGAIN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND BRING BACK RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
HEAT. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OVER ANY ONE SITE FOR A TEMPO,BUT INCLUDING
VCTS BEGINNING 15-17Z FOR MOST SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ANY SITE IMPACTED DIRECTLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
OVERALL BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A GENTLE AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE ATLANTIC AND WEST FOR THE GULF WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SEA
BREEZES. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO MODERATE SPEEDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE DISTURBANCE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CAN CAUSE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SEAS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNDER 2 FEET FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 89 80 91 / 50 70 30 50
WEST KENDALL 74 89 77 91 / 50 60 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 77 91 79 92 / 50 70 30 50
HOMESTEAD 77 89 79 90 / 50 70 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 80 90 / 50 70 30 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 89 80 91 / 60 70 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 79 93 81 94 / 50 70 30 50
WEST PALM BEACH 75 90 78 91 / 60 70 20 50
BOCA RATON 76 92 79 92 / 60 70 20 50
NAPLES 77 89 77 93 / 70 90 30 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page