901
FXUS62 KMFL 230537
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE NE GULF ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
CENTER OF IT LIKELY OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT, THUS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TODAY IS AGAIN IN THE RANGE OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES
WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF ABOUT 1.5-2.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, AS WE SAW YESTERDAY, THE SEA BREEZES AND OTHER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS CAN ASSIST IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DISSIPATING SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE IN THE SAME AREAS AND ALSO A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN STAY STATIONARY AND PRODUCE MUCH MORE RAINFALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WITH THAT SAID, MID
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE
PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, SO SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE ALONG
MUCH FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MAIN REASON WHY THE
HREF LPMM HAS VERY FEW AREAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GROUND AND SOILS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE PRIMED
FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN TO WHERE ANY QUICK HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
STILL HAS SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. ALL IN ALL, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SETUP THAN YESTERDAY. THE SAME IS LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE HIGHLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. IF A SEVERE STORM DOES
OCCUR, IT IS LIKELY TO BE WIND BASED RATHER THAN HAIL BASED,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S THE NEXT TWO
DAYS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COASTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SOME
SAHARAN DUST (SAL) ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA AND LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SETUP AND A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE, ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND DIURNAL MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZES.
RIGHT NOW, PWATS LOOK TO FALL WELL BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY (UNDER
1.4-1.5 INCHES OR EVEN LESS) AND THEN REBOUNDS A BIT ON SUNDAY BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO (1.6-1.8 INCHES), SO THIS SUGGESTS LESSER SPATIAL
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
FALL TO BELOW 10-20% ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ONLY 20-30% ON SUNDAY
EVEN WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO AN EXTENT AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BEING AVERAGE, LEAVING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEING
A RESULT OF DIURNAL AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY LOSE SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY
ARRIVE BACK INTO THE AREA, SO WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE AGAIN IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, THIS
IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AND THUS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH THE DRIER WEATHER AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK TOO. AS A
RESULT, CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY IN REGARDS TO ANY
EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS THAT NEED TO BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OVER ANY ONE
SITE FOR A TEMPO YET, BUT VCTS BEGINS 15-17Z. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY SITE IMPACTED DIRECTLY. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS INCREASE TODAY TO
MODERATE SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND CAN CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNDER 2 FEET FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISING SLIGHTLY IN THE
ATLANTIC TO 2-3 FEET ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 80 91 81 / 70 40 60 20
WEST KENDALL 88 76 91 79 / 60 40 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 92 80 / 70 40 60 20
HOMESTEAD 88 78 90 81 / 60 50 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 91 81 / 70 40 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 80 91 81 / 70 40 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 93 81 93 82 / 70 40 60 20
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 91 80 / 70 30 50 10
BOCA RATON 91 79 93 80 / 70 40 50 20
NAPLES 88 76 93 78 / 90 60 80 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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