077
FXUS62 KMFL 231809
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE NE GULF ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A
TUTT LOW IS CROSSING THROUGH REGION WITH ITS CENTER REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PWATS LIKELY REMAINING OVER TWO INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT, THUS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH
LEAVES LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ALTHOUGH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AFTER A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY, LIKELY IMPACTING
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WE SLOWLY LOSE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT, WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S THE NEXT TWO
DAYS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE
COASTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SOME
SAHARAN DUST (SAL) ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA AND LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SETUP AND A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE, ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND DIURNAL MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZES.
RIGHT NOW, PWATS LOOK TO FALL WELL BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY (UNDER
1.4-1.5 INCHES OR EVEN LESS) AND THEN REBOUNDS A BIT ON SUNDAY BACK
TO NEAR CLIMO (1.6-1.8 INCHES), SO THIS SUGGESTS LESSER SPATIAL
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
FALL TO BELOW 10-20% ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ONLY 20-30% ON SUNDAY
EVEN WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO AN EXTENT AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BEING AVERAGE, LEAVING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEING
A RESULT OF DIURNAL AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY LOSE SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY
ARRIVE BACK INTO THE AREA, SO WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE AGAIN IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, THIS
IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AND THUS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH THE DRIER WEATHER AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK TOO. AS A
RESULT, CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY IN REGARDS TO ANY
EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS THAT NEED TO BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
PERIODS OF LIMITED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN BY MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS INCREASE TODAY TO
MODERATE SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND CAN CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNDER 2 FEET FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISING SLIGHTLY IN THE
ATLANTIC TO 2-3 FEET ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS INCREASE TODAY TO
MODERATE SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND CAN CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNDER 2 FEET FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISING SLIGHTLY IN THE
ATLANTIC TO 2-3 FEET ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 91 81 91 / 40 60 20 20
WEST KENDALL 77 91 78 91 / 30 50 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 79 92 80 93 / 40 60 20 20
HOMESTEAD 79 90 80 91 / 40 50 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 81 91 / 40 60 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 91 81 91 / 30 60 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 81 94 82 94 / 40 60 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 79 91 79 91 / 30 60 10 20
BOCA RATON 79 92 80 93 / 30 60 20 10
NAPLES 77 92 77 94 / 50 80 30 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO/REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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