512
FXUS62 KMFL 240541
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE WEST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALSO MOVES WEST AND APPROACHES THE NE
FLORIDA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE
TUTT WE'VE BEEN TRACKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS LOCATED EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE NW COAST OF
CUBA. THE TUTT WILL BE A FACTOR IN SOUTH FLORIDA'S WEATHER FOR
ONE MORE DAY BEFORE MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY.
TODAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE TUTT WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA TODAY,
WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ACT AS A FOCUS AND FORCING MECHANISM FOR ONE
MORE DAY OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYERED SE-S WIND
FLOW WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION TIMING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
SCATTERED MORNING TO MIDDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
MAINLY COASTAL AND METRO EAST COAST LOCATIONS, TRANSITIONING BY
AFTERNOON TO ACROSS INTERIOR, GULF COAST, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS,
WITH THE 00Z HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 J/KG AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. WITH THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW INCREASING A BIT TODAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORWARD MOTION TO
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HREF LPMM IS
ONLY SHOWING ONE OR TWO SPOTS WITH AROUND 3" OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS, WHICH MATCHES THE EXPECTED
SCENARIO QUITE WELL.
AS THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS START MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE IS POISED TO MOVE IN FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DRIER AIR AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WHICH
WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION DAY OF SORTS, WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR AND SAL MOVING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
DURING THE DAY, BUT LIKELY NOT MOVING INTO SW FLORIDA UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE FLORIDA WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY, BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR MAX POPS IN
THE 40-50% RANGE IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEAN CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SO THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG OR EVEN A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
WITH LESS OVERALL CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TO THE MID 90S OVER
INTERIOR SW, AND WE'LL ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 100-105F
RANGE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS, AND 105-108F OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. IN PARTICULAR, FRIDAY'S HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SW FLORIDA SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
MONDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH IS THE
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC ARE SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES OF AROUND 1.2 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM OBSERVED VALUE FOR
THE DATE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SAL WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE
HIGH, AND THE SAME ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
20C-21C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE HISTORICAL
MAXIMA FOR THE DATE. THESE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A HALLMARK
OF SALS AND POINT TO AN UNUSUALLY DRY FOR LATE JULY DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH POPS LESS THAN 20% AREA-WIDE. POPS WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE UPWARD ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST, BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND LESS THAN 20% EAST COAST
METRO.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND LEAD TO MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO CLOSE TO LATE JULY NORMALS. POPS LOOK TO
RETURN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, RANGING FROM 20-30% EAST
COAST METRO TO 50-60% INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. POPS MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED UPWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BY ANOTHER TUTT
WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NEAR TOTAL SUNSHINE IN LATE JULY, SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ARE LOOKING HOT WITH NBM SHOWING SOLID MID 90S OVER ALL
BUT THE EAST COAST METRO AND BEACHES WHERE THE EAST WINDS WILL
MODIFY TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SPOTS IN
THE UPPER 90S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY HELP TO
KNOCK DEWPOINTS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH AT THE PRESENT
TIME LOOK TO MITIGATE HEAT IMPACTS AND THE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS HOT, AND MORE DETAILS
WILL BE PROVIDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MONDAY'S HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE THE HIGHEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS MORE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING HOT TEMPERATURES, AND
WIDESPREAD VALUES OF 105-108F LOOK MORE LIKELY BY THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND POSSIBLY AFFECT EAST COAST TERMINALS IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SITE EXPERIENCE PROLONGED IMPACTS,
SO VCTS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. SHRA/TSRA
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 17Z OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
AND IS REFLECTED BY PROB30 AT APF FROM 17Z-22Z. LIGHT WIND THROUGH
12Z, BECOMING 120-130 DEGREES AT 10-13 KNOTS AFTER 12Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES
WEST TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY, THEN INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, MAINLY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 3 FT, THEN DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME E
AND NE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES WEST INTO THE
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF HIGH
RISK, THEN REMAIN ELEVATED ON SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 81 91 80 / 50 30 20 0
WEST KENDALL 90 78 91 76 / 50 30 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 92 80 92 79 / 60 30 20 0
HOMESTEAD 89 80 90 79 / 50 40 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 81 90 80 / 60 30 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 82 91 80 / 60 30 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 94 82 94 81 / 60 30 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 91 78 / 60 20 20 0
BOCA RATON 92 80 92 78 / 60 30 10 0
NAPLES 92 77 94 77 / 80 30 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....MOLLEDA
AVIATION...MOLLEDA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page