180
FXUS62 KMFL 241711
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE LOCALLY FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER INLAND AND SW FL, BUT EVEN THE METRO WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS OF 10-20 KTS
WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES, ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, A FEW ISOLATED 1+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 90 CLOSE TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST, TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FL.
CONVECTION WANES OVER MOST OF SOUTH FL TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED WITH MIDDLE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR TO AROUND
80 CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ON FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS, AND PWAT VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 1.1-
1.25 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL TICK UP A COUPLE DEGREES
VERSUS TODAY, WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED. DESPITE THE HIGHER
TEMPS, DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
PREVENT ANY HEAT HEADLINES FROM BEING NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE SAHARAN DUST PLUME WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY LOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE
SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTH FL, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
OVER INLAND AREAS, AND AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COASTS. WHILE MOST
DAYS WILL HOVER NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE BEST CHANCE
ESPECIALLY OVER SW FL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE MAX HEAT
INDICES AROUND 110 ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SCT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING,
FAVORING INLAND AND SW FL. STORMS NEAR TERMINALS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SE WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN WIND
SPEEDS FALL TO UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
MODERATE SE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SEAS 1-3 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FT OR
LESS IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 91 80 92 / 30 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 78 91 76 92 / 30 20 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 80 92 79 93 / 30 20 0 10
HOMESTEAD 80 90 79 90 / 40 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 90 / 30 20 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 91 80 91 / 30 20 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 94 81 95 / 30 20 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 91 78 92 / 20 20 0 0
BOCA RATON 80 92 78 92 / 30 10 0 0
NAPLES 77 94 77 95 / 30 40 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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