583
FXUS62 KMFL 251103
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
POISED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY, AS REFLECTED ON
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA
SHOWING PWAT VALUES SHARPLY DECREASING FROM 1.7-1.8 INCHES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO 1.2-1.3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY AIR, A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH ARE
MAKING IT ONSHORE OVER PARTS OF SE FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY FORCING CAUSED BY THE DENSITY DISCONTINUITY OF THE
ADVANCING DRY AIR.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DRY AIR RATHER QUICKLY INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, ARRIVING OVER SE FLORIDA BY MIDDAY THEN TO THE
GULF COAST AROUND SUNSET. AS A RESULT, A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE FLORIDA SHOULD END BY MIDDAY OR VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA, THE TIMING OF THE DRY
AIR MAY BE DELAYED JUST ENOUGH WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HEATING TO
ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE SAME DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MENTIONED
ABOVE. SO ALTHOUGH POPS ARE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS OVER SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY AIR FULLY TAKES OVER BY
TONIGHT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE DRY AIR WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW
MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WE END UP GETTING, AS WELL AS HOW
STRONG IT COULD GET.
THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR WILL BE SOLIDLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES
WHICH WOULD BE NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-LOW VALUES FOR THE DATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A RARE DRY DAY AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY AS REFLECTED BY
NBM POPS BELOW 15%. THE DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH WILL BE TRAPPED ABOVE A STRONG INVERSION
AROUND 925 MB.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN INCREASING TREND TODAY, WITH MID 90S OVER
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND SOME UPPER 90S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS ON SATURDAY. EVEN COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 90, WITH 91-94F OVER METRO SE FLORIDA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SOME MIXING OF THE DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE WILL
LOWER DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES, PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH TO CAP THE
DURATION OF CRITICAL HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND A SHORT-FUSED HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
AND/OR SATURDAY ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY, TAKING
WITH IT THE CORE OF THE DRIEST AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGINNING A SLOW AND MODEST INCREASE WHICH WILL LAST INTO
NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ON SUNDAY (STILL BELOW
NORMAL), AND CLOSER TO LATE JULY NORMALS OF 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TREND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER SW FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN COVERAGE FROM MONDAY ONWARD. WITH THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW
OUT OF THE NE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, POPS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED IN THE 20-40% OVER SE FLORIDA, BUT INCREASING TO 40-60%
INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK TUTT IS STILL
BEING SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWITCH THE MEAN WIND FLOW TO SE AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR
NOW POPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, PERHAPS STILL RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER SE
FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90S MOST AREAS FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
INCREASING WILL ELEVATE HEAT CONCERNS AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SCT COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING, AND THEN SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER INLAND AND SW FL. LIGHT
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z WITH AN
AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH SE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. WINDS DECREASE TO E 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH A FURTHER DECREASING TREND SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THEN DECREASING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS MONDAY, AND OVER ALL LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY WITH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY BUT PROBABLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, WITH THE RISK DECREASING MORE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THEN
MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY RATHER LIMITED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM PRIMARILY AT THE GULF BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 82 91 78 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 91 78 92 75 / 20 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 93 81 93 77 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 90 80 91 77 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 83 91 78 / 20 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 82 91 78 / 20 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 94 82 95 80 / 20 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 91 77 / 20 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 93 81 92 77 / 20 0 0 0
NAPLES 94 76 96 77 / 40 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....MOLLEDA
AVIATION...CMF
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