718
FXUS62 KMFL 251624
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1224 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
16Z ACARS DATA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AIRPORTS INDICATES THE ARRIVAL OF
A SPRAWLING PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A NOTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT DRAPED FROM EAST TO
WEST. RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA FROM MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.149 INCHES, WHICH WHEN COMPARED TO
THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY (BASED ON UPPER AIR LAUNCHES) WOULD BE
BELOW THE DAILY MINIMUM OBSERVED VALUE FOR THE DATE. TECHNICAL
FACTOIDS OUT OF THE WAY, THE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST HAS RESULTED IN A
COPIOUS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL USHER IN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT DRY LAYER FROM 900MB AND UPWARDS WHICH WILL
LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW LOW-CAPPED CUMULUS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE
COULD DEVELOP INTO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT BACKGROUND KINEMATICS, WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN
CHECK AS FAR AS INTENSITY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY SUB-
SEVERE WINDS IF A TALLER CORE OVERACHIEVES BUT IN GENERAL CONVECTION
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY. SYNOPTICALLY,
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THIS FEATURE
SLOWLY PIVOTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR, COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
DURATION AND VALUE THRESHOLDS. HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100F
TO 105F RANGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO WITH HIGHER HEAT INDICES
OF 106F TO 109F POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BE
SURE TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE AC, AND ALWAYS
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE FOR PETS AND CHILDREN.
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE ONE/TWO COMBO
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SAHARAN DUST AT THE SURFACE KEEPS
CONVECTION CHANCES AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM. WHILE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR SHOULD STIFLE VERTICAL GROWTH, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE GULF BREEZE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN FORECASTED
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF INLAND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING PIVOTS WESTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, NASA'S GMAO DUST OPTICAL THICKNESS MODEL ALSO DEPICTS THE
CURRENT PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AND WANE IN
CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERLY PERIPHERY OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL ADVECT
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT THE SURFACE PUSHING IN FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES
GRADUALLY RECOVER TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ON SUNDAY (STILL BELOW
NORMAL), AND CLOSER TO LATE JULY NORMALS OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TREND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM MONDAY
ONWARD. MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
PRIOR TO ACTIVITY FOCUSING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.
GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS A WEAK TUTT MODELS ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK-
WEEK. THIS COULD VEER THE MEAN WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EVEN IF NO NEGLIGIBLE POOL OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WERE TO
MATERIALIZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90S MOST AREAS FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
INCREASING WILL ELEVATE HEAT CONCERNS AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VFR, SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS. A
GULF BREEZE IS FORECAST AT KAPF TODAY BETWEEN 20Z TO 22Z AS WINDS
VEER ONSHORE, VCTS REMAINS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR KAPF AT THE
MOMENT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH SE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. WINDS DECREASE TO E 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH A FURTHER DECREASING TREND SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THEN DECREASING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS MONDAY, AND OVER ALL LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, WITH THE RISK DECREASING MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 91 78 93 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 77 92 75 93 / 0 10 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 79 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 78 91 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 91 78 92 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 81 95 80 96 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 77 92 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 78 92 77 93 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 76 94 77 94 / 10 10 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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