977
FXUS62 KMFL 141308 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGHS GETTING UP
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES GETTING UP
INTO THE LOWER 100S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO LOWER TO
MID 100S OVER THE INTERIOR/WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE, NO
HEAT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND PUSHING INLAND.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS FOR TODAY. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED FOR THE POPS AND COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, PROMOTING LIGHT EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE. SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTLINES WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENTS OF THE EAST COAST SUBURBS AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, PROPAGATING WESTWARD LATER IN THE EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BUT WOULD REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BALMY,
DROPPING TO THE MID 70S AND LOW 80S. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW
100S AND WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
VALUES GREATER THAN 104 DEG F (FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES),
AND VALUES GREATER THAN 107 DEG F (ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA)REMAIN
BELOW 30%. AS SUCH, WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS WITH
THIS EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. NEVERTHELESS, CAN'T DISCOUNT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-FUSE ADVISORY LATER TODAY IF TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES OUTPACE THE VALUES IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SURFACE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS WEEKEND
AS TWO LOW PRESSURE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS: ONE
SURFACE LOW DROPPING FROM THE SE US ON SATURDAY, AND TROPICAL
STORM ERIN AS IT GRADUALLY CURVES NORTHWESTWARD. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA STARTING SATURDAY, WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEN, EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WINDS COULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY AS ERIN
DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN AND
MOSTLY CLUSTERED OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOW- MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDICES WILL
PEAK IN THE LOW 100S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES,
EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z. VCTS FOR EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 17Z AND
22Z, AND BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z FOR KAPF TAF SITE. CEILING AND VIS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. WILL UPDATE TAFS WHEN THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATE TODAY IF NEED BE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY.
GULF BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WEST COAST EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH
SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 92 77 92 77 / 50 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 93 79 / 40 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 91 78 91 79 / 40 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 91 79 / 40 10 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 80 91 80 / 40 10 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 80 95 80 / 40 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 78 92 79 / 40 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 93 79 93 79 / 40 10 20 10
NAPLES 92 79 93 79 / 50 20 40 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...BNB
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