522
FXUS62 KMFL 151556
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1156 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HALLMARKS OF RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL LIGHT
FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 300MB. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN IN
THE VERTICAL COLUMN, CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPARSE IN THE SHORT TERM
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CUMULUS. AS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF BREEZE GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND, LOCALIZED ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES (-5C), LACKLUSTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -5 TO
-5.5 C/KM AND A ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING,
CONVECTION WILL BE MEAGER TODAY OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PULSE UP IF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN FROM THE MID-LEVELS, HEAT
INDICES SHOULD THANKFULLY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHORT-TERM UPDATE, THE ONLY MESSAGING NUGGET
WORTH ADDING ON TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS THAT NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL FROM ERIN IN THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NORTHERN EAST COAST BEACHES. ALTHOUGH THE BAHAMAS ARCHIPELAGO
WILL SHIELD US FROM MOST OF THE WAVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTANT ERIN, A SMALL AMOUNT OF SWELL MAY STILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE POTENTIAL MARINE AND
COASTAL CONCERNS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN FELT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHWARD AND ERODE, WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST AS A RESULT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, HELPING LIMIT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AND KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
A SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY, SKIRTING THE WEAKENING RIDGE, AND COULD INJECT SOME
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE ALSO PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLIDE
NORTHWESTWARD - AND FINDING ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WILL BE FELT IN THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
ERIN'S CURVING TRAJECTORY.
HOWEVER, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOCAL PROCESSES AND SEA BREEZE DYNAMICS, WITH 60-70% POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON AND WARM, SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST FOR 12Z.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING. AT
KAPF, LIGHT WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INLAND OF THE SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. GULF BREEZES WILL
BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 91 80 / 20 20 40 20
WEST KENDALL 92 77 91 77 / 20 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 94 79 / 20 20 40 20
HOMESTEAD 91 79 91 78 / 20 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 91 80 / 20 20 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 80 91 80 / 20 10 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 80 94 80 / 20 20 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 79 92 79 / 10 10 20 10
BOCA RATON 93 79 93 79 / 20 10 30 10
NAPLES 93 79 94 78 / 30 20 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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