459
FXUS62 KMFL 152337
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HALLMARKS OF RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL LIGHT
FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 300MB. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN IN
THE VERTICAL COLUMN, CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPARSE IN THE SHORT TERM
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CUMULUS. AS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF BREEZE GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND, LOCALIZED ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES (-5C), LACKLUSTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -5 TO
-5.5 C/KM AND A ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING,
CONVECTION WILL BE MEAGER TODAY OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PULSE UP IF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER WITH THE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN FROM THE MID-LEVELS, HEAT
INDICES SHOULD THANKFULLY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHORT-TERM UPDATE, THE ONLY MESSAGING NUGGET
WORTH ADDING ON TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS THAT NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL FROM ERIN IN THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NORTHERN EAST COAST BEACHES. ALTHOUGH THE BAHAMAS ARCHIPELAGO
WILL SHIELD US FROM MOST OF THE WAVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTANT ERIN, A SMALL AMOUNT OF SWELL MAY STILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE POTENTIAL MARINE AND
COASTAL CONCERNS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN FELT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHWARD AND ERODE, WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST AS A RESULT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, HELPING LIMIT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AND KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
A SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY, SKIRTING THE WEAKENING RIDGE, AND COULD INJECT SOME
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE ALSO PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLIDE
NORTHWESTWARD - AND FINDING ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WILL BE FELT IN THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
ERIN'S CURVING TRAJECTORY.
HOWEVER, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOCAL PROCESSES AND SEA BREEZE DYNAMICS, WITH 60-70% POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON AND WARM, SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. GULF BREEZES WILL
BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 80 92 / 10 50 10 30
WEST KENDALL 77 92 78 93 / 10 50 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 80 93 80 94 / 10 50 10 30
HOMESTEAD 78 91 78 91 / 10 50 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 80 91 / 10 40 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 92 80 92 / 10 40 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 81 95 80 95 / 10 50 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 79 93 / 0 30 10 30
BOCA RATON 79 93 79 93 / 10 40 10 30
NAPLES 78 95 79 93 / 20 30 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CWC
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