931
FXUS62 KMFL 160456
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA, AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF BREEZE. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EVERGLADES AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY, HELPING LIMIT OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND KEEPING
HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A (VERY) SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON, SKIRTING THE WEAKENING
RIDGE, AND COULD INJECT SOME MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PLUME OF
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, BRIEFLY
SPIKING PWATS INTO THE 2 INCH RANGE. THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE SAW THE
PAST FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED
TO BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
ON SUNDAY, THE ENHANCED PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2 AND 2.1 INCHES WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, WITH MODELED PWATS REMAINING
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8 INCHES. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER,
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING NORTHWESTWARD
AND FINDING ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE TROPICAL STORM
ERIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WILL BE FELT IN
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ERIN'S CURVING TRAJECTORY.
WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, AND GIVEN ERIN
IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL PROCESSES AND SEA
BREEZE DYNAMICS, WITH 60-70% POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK AND WARM, SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES PEAKING
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. AS
IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER, INDIVIDUALS
SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. GULF BREEZES WILL
BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MID-LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS COULD SEE AN
INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 78 93 / 10 30 10 50
WEST KENDALL 78 93 76 93 / 10 40 10 50
OPA-LOCKA 80 94 78 94 / 10 30 10 50
HOMESTEAD 78 91 77 92 / 20 30 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 78 91 / 10 30 10 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 92 79 92 / 10 30 10 50
PEMBROKE PINES 80 95 79 95 / 10 30 10 50
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 50
BOCA RATON 79 93 78 94 / 10 30 10 50
NAPLES 79 93 78 93 / 30 50 30 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page