947
FXUS62 KMFL 161843
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
LATEST ANALYSIS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER AND KEEPING A PREVAILING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT, MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE BRUNT OF ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER SW FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS,
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA, AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF BREEZE. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EVERGLADES AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY, HELPING LIMIT OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND KEEPING
HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A (VERY) SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON, SKIRTING THE WEAKENING
RIDGE, AND COULD INJECT SOME MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PLUME OF
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, BRIEFLY
SPIKING PWATS INTO THE 2 INCH RANGE. THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE SAW THE
PAST FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED
TO BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
ON SUNDAY, THE ENHANCED PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD RANGE BETWEEN
2 AND 2.1 INCHES WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, WITH MODELED PWATS REMAINING
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8 INCHES. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER,
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING NORTHWESTWARD
AND FINDING ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE TROPICAL STORM
ERIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE SYNOPTIC CHANGES WILL BE FELT IN
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ERIN'S CURVING TRAJECTORY.
WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, AND GIVEN ERIN
IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL PROCESSES AND SEA
BREEZE DYNAMICS, WITH 60-70% POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK AND WARM, SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES PEAKING
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. AS
IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER, INDIVIDUALS
SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY FAVOR INLAND AND SW FL
TODAY. E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE EXPECTED AT APF. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GULF BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE WEST COAST EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT,
EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID-LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
COULD SEE AN INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 79 93 / 20 40 10 40
WEST KENDALL 77 93 76 93 / 20 40 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 80 94 79 95 / 10 30 10 40
HOMESTEAD 78 92 77 92 / 20 30 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 92 / 20 30 10 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 92 79 93 / 10 30 10 50
PEMBROKE PINES 81 96 79 96 / 10 30 10 40
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 79 93 / 10 40 10 50
BOCA RATON 80 94 79 95 / 10 30 10 50
NAPLES 78 93 79 92 / 30 50 40 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page