280
FXUS62 KMFL 170450
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN TODAY, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
DRIVING LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF
BREEZE, AND KEEP MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EVERGLADES AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, HELPING LIMIT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND KEEPING HEAT
INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES, THIS MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY IMPACT EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHORT- LIVED.
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE ERIN BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND, NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BEGINS TO FEEL ERIN'S BROAD OUTER CIRCULATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER,
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
HURRICANE ERIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SINCE S FL WILL BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER,
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL PRIMARILY
BE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN EACH DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ERIN PUSHES
NORTH OF OUR LATITUDES BY EARLY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD
ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS
SLIGHTLY LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS, AS WELL AS HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S EACH DAY. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA
SUMMER, INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z OUT OF THE ESE AND WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WSW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. GULF BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MID-LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS COULD SEE AN INCREASING
NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 93 79 93 / 10 40 30 60
WEST KENDALL 76 93 76 93 / 10 40 30 60
OPA-LOCKA 79 95 79 94 / 10 40 30 50
HOMESTEAD 77 92 77 92 / 10 40 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 92 79 92 / 10 40 30 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 93 79 93 / 10 50 30 50
PEMBROKE PINES 79 96 80 96 / 10 40 30 50
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 78 93 / 10 50 20 50
BOCA RATON 79 95 78 94 / 10 50 30 50
NAPLES 79 92 78 92 / 40 50 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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