001
FXUS62 KMFL 171104
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN TODAY, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
DRIVING LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF
BREEZE, AND KEEP MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EVERGLADES AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, HELPING LIMIT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND KEEPING HEAT
INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES, THIS MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY IMPACT EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHORT- LIVED.
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE ERIN BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ACT TO VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND, NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BEGINS TO FEEL ERIN'S BROAD OUTER CIRCULATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER,
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
HURRICANE ERIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SINCE S FL WILL BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER,
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL PRIMARILY
BE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN EACH DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ERIN PUSHES
NORTH OF OUR LATITUDES BY EARLY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD
ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS
SLIGHTLY LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS, AS WELL AS HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S EACH DAY. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA
SUMMER, INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MAINLY OVER INLAND AND SW FL, HOWEVER VCTS WAS ALSO
ENTERED AT TMB THIS AFTERNOON. E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY,
WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. GULF BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MID-LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS COULD SEE AN INCREASING
NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
INCREASING SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT
MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
CONCERNS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 93 79 / 40 10 40 20
WEST KENDALL 93 76 93 77 / 40 10 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 94 78 95 79 / 40 10 40 20
HOMESTEAD 91 77 92 77 / 40 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 93 79 / 30 10 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 80 93 79 / 30 10 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 96 80 96 80 / 40 10 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 93 78 93 78 / 30 10 40 20
BOCA RATON 93 78 95 78 / 30 10 40 20
NAPLES 93 78 92 78 / 50 30 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CMF
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