888
FXUS62 KMFL 171638
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1238 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND THROUGH TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA AREAS
SINCE THE PREDOMINANT FLOW WILL BE OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SETUP. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT IN THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THAT DEW POINTS AND THUS
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN TODAY, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
DRIVING LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF
BREEZE, AND KEEP MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EVERGLADES AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, HELPING LIMIT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND
KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES, THIS
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND ANY SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHORT-
LIVED.
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AS
HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. AS THE SEA
BREEZES PUSH INLAND, NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINS TO FEEL ERIN'S
BROAD OUTER CIRCULATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER,
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN HEAT TOLERANCE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
HURRICANE ERIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SINCE S FL WILL BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER,
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL PRIMARILY
BE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN EACH DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ERIN PUSHES
NORTH OF OUR LATITUDES BY EARLY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD
ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS
SLIGHTLY LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS, AS WELL AS HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW 100S EACH DAY. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE DURING A SOUTH FLORIDA
SUMMER, INDIVIDUALS SHOULD ADJUST THEIR ACTIVITIES AND PRECAUTIONS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MAINLY OVER INLAND AND SW FL, HOWEVER VCTS WAS ALSO
ENTERED AT TMB THIS AFTERNOON. E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY,
WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. GULF BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1-2 FT, EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MID-LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS COULD SEE AN INCREASING
NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
INCREASING SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT
MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
CONCERNS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 93 79 93 / 10 40 20 60
WEST KENDALL 76 93 77 94 / 10 40 20 60
OPA-LOCKA 78 95 79 95 / 10 40 20 60
HOMESTEAD 77 92 77 92 / 10 30 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 93 79 92 / 10 40 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 93 79 93 / 10 40 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 80 96 80 96 / 10 40 20 60
WEST PALM BEACH 78 93 78 93 / 10 40 20 50
BOCA RATON 78 95 78 95 / 10 40 20 50
NAPLES 78 92 78 92 / 30 50 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CMF
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