094
FXUS62 KMFL 180507
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
107 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
MONDAY BEGINS JUST LIKE ANY OTHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. VERY WEAK EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS EARLY IN THE DAY AS
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS AND LEAVES SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
HURRICANE ERIN SLOWLY ENTERS THE PICTURE AND SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO
ATTAIN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER LOCAL WATERS, WHILE FLOW
REMAINS EXTREMELY WEAK OVER LAND. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF CONVECTION AS HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH AS SEA BREEZES PROGRESS INLAND, NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE KIND OF A
UNIQUE SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZES AND SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OVERALL, WITH SUCH WEAK
BACKGROUND FLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW, AND CLOSE TO THE METRO
AREAS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER, WITH
SUNSHINE REMAINING ONLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND
BARRIER ISLANDS. GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A SLOWER HALT TO CONVECTION, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, ERIN CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE PENINSULA TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE WE
BEGIN TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE UNIFORM NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAND AREAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. A SIMILAR EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY MOTION TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE FLOW
BEGINNING TO VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL POSSIBLY ADVECT THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING MORE OF THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD METRO AREAS THAN ON
MONDAY. ALL OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF HURRICANE
ERIN, AND SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM SPEED OR MOTION COULD
CHANGE TIMING FOR WIND SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE
EXACT PROPAGATION OF LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD, SURFACE FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA VEERS MORE WESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND WE
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
THESE REGIONS. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY FACILITATED BY
HURRICANE ERIN'S CIRCULATION WHICH COULD ACT TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES,
WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY A BIT MORE MOISTURE IS ABLE WORK INTO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING GLADES, HENDRY
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE MOST
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS TOWARDS COAST BY THE EVENING AS
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL, ALBEIT VERY LIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, HURRICANE ERIN'S INFLUENCE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE AT
ALL. SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN TO DOMINATE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH AN EASTERN BREEZE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND AND FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING IN THE LOW 100S TO AROUND
105, POTENTIALLY DANCING AROUND HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT, BECOMES LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE AT EAST COAST SITES, AND
WESTERLY AT APF. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, CLOSE TO SITES DUE TO WEAKER
SURFACE FLOW. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM SITES,
ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE CLOSE, SO ADDED A VCTS
BETWEEN 18Z-04Z AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HINTS AT LINGERING STORMS
BEYOND SUNSET. SHORT FUSE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SITES
THAT ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS MONDAY AS DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN'S OUTER
CIRCULATION BEGINS VEERING WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS GULF
WATERS TO BEGIN THE DAY, AND WILL BE VEERING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE VEERING TO A MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAIN AT ONE FOOT OR LESS FOR ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY AND GULF
WATERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 3-4 FEET
ACROSS NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PROVIDE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH
SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID-
LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS COULD SEE AN INCREASING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
INCREASING SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT MORE
LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
CONCERNS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 94 79 94 79 / 40 30 60 30
WEST KENDALL 94 76 94 76 / 40 20 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 95 79 95 78 / 40 20 60 30
HOMESTEAD 92 78 93 77 / 30 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 92 78 / 30 30 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 80 92 78 / 40 20 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 97 80 96 79 / 40 20 50 30
WEST PALM BEACH 94 78 93 77 / 40 20 50 20
BOCA RATON 94 78 94 77 / 40 20 50 20
NAPLES 93 78 93 78 / 60 40 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page