271
FXUS62 KMFL 191706
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
106 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
MODELS SHOW AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE
OF HURRICANE ERIN TO THE EAST AND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE E CONUS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUING ROBUST N TO NW FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH WED. THEW LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER BRINGS THE CENTER OF ERIN AROUND 400 MILES FROM THE SE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST BY WED MORNING.
THE MAIN EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM ERIN REMAIN BUILDING SWELLS,
RESULTING IN A HIGH RISK RISK OF RIP CURRENT, HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC NEARSHORE WATERS, AND STARTING LATE WED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
THEREFORE, EXPECT INCREASING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AT LOCAL BEACHES,
AND BEACHGOERS SHOULD HEED ALL POSTED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
REGARDING SURF AND RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND PUSH INLAND AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.
THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM MOTION GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTH, WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOFLO.
EVENING TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMEST ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. WITH ERIN BEING SO FAR REMOVED FROM SOUTH FLORIDA,
SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING, THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASES WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINING WELL ESTABLISHED,
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, MAXIMIZING COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS.
HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL VEER SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTERLY BY THE
MID AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WITH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING,
THE GULF BREEZE HAS A CHANCE TO DOMINATE FOR ONCE, AND COULD LEAD TO
A FEW STORMS IMPACTING EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY WITH APPARENT
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND WILL POTENTIALLY
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS WE SLOWLY LOSE THE
IMPACT FROM HURRICANE ERIN, BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKER AND
WEAKER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH DAY WILL BEGIN
SIMILARLY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND. IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DRIVER, THE
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO RUN THE SHOW EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY BE
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
WITH HEAD INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO
DIP BELOW 80 ACROSS METRO AREAS AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
IN GENERAL, IT WILL BE VCTS OR QUICK PASSING SHOWERS AROUND THE
TERMINALS AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N
OR NW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH AROUND 01Z, THEN BECOMING L/V.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
HURRICANE ERIN'S OUTER CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS GULF WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN
AT ONE FOOT OR LESS FOR GULF WATERS TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE
TO 3-4 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID-
LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS COULD SEE AN INCREASING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
INCREASING SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TODAY, BUT
MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
CONCERNS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK FOR
BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 96 80 94 / 20 40 20 50
WEST KENDALL 76 94 78 93 / 20 40 20 50
OPA-LOCKA 78 97 79 95 / 20 40 20 50
HOMESTEAD 77 94 78 93 / 30 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 96 79 93 / 20 40 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 96 79 94 / 20 40 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 79 98 80 97 / 20 40 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 77 95 78 95 / 20 50 20 60
BOCA RATON 77 97 78 96 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 78 92 80 92 / 30 30 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
UPDATE/AVIATION...17
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