812
FXUS62 KMFL 201731
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICT A SYNOPTIC FLOW
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ERIN TO THE EAST, WHILE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E CONUS. THE RESULTING
NW FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL AGAIN PUSH CONVECTION TOWARDS
INLAND AREAS, HOWEVER, SOME LATE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SUBSIDES.
ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BUILDING SWELLS, RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK RISK OF RIP CURRENT, HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEARSHORE
WATERS, AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COASTLINE. THEREFORE, EXPECT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AT LOCAL BEACHES,
AND BEACHGOERS SHOULD HEED ALL POSTED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
REGARDING SURF AND RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY.
EVENING LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMEST
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
EASTERN METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DAY WILL BEGIN
BRIGHT AND SUNNY, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING TOWARDS EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A FEW EASTWARD PROPAGATING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN'S DISTANT BUT VERY LARGE OUTER CIRCULATION.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 103-107 DEGREES. WITH WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY POTENTIALLY LINGERING ALL THE
WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS WE SLOWLY LOSE THE IMPACT
FROM HURRICANE ERIN, BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKER AND WEAKER
EACH DAY AND SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EACH DAY WILL BEGIN SIMILARLY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC DRIVER, THE BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO
RUN THE SHOW EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EXTRA CLOSELY SINCE
WE'LL HAVE WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 80 ACROSS METRO AREAS AND WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S FOR
INTERIOR AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS, AS WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY NW AROUND 10KT. L/V FLOW PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH VFR. W FLOW
WILL ESTABLISH ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH VCTS AFTER 17Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
HURRICANE ERIN'S OUTER CIRCULATION WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAIN AT ONE FOOT OR LESS FOR GULF WATERS TODAY WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGE BETWEEN 3-4 FEET ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 6-7 FEET BY THIS EVENING - ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS
OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF PERIODS
OF HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ERIN TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID-
LATE WEEK, LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SEE AN INCREASING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
INCREASING SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES AND HIGH SURF CONCERNS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA BEACHES
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 94 80 94 / 30 60 10 60
WEST KENDALL 77 94 77 93 / 20 60 10 50
OPA-LOCKA 79 95 79 95 / 30 70 10 60
HOMESTEAD 78 93 78 93 / 30 60 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 94 79 93 / 30 70 20 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 94 80 93 / 30 70 20 60
PEMBROKE PINES 79 97 80 97 / 30 70 20 60
WEST PALM BEACH 78 95 78 94 / 40 70 20 70
BOCA RATON 78 97 78 96 / 40 70 20 60
NAPLES 81 92 80 92 / 30 60 20 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-068-071>074-
168-172>174.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
UPDATE/AVIATION...AR
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